China Galaxy Securities: The growth rate of total electricity consumption in the whole society is slowing down, while the year-on-year increase in newly installed capacity is declining.

China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that in recent months, some provinces represented by Guangdong have seen a significant increase in spot electricity prices due to factors such as a rise in energy prices, early high temperatures, and supply-demand mismatch caused by unit maintenance, partially reversing the market's pessimistic expectations for electricity prices. The National Climate Center predicts that May will enter an El Nino state, with a moderate to strong El Nino event forming in the summer and autumn, focusing on the repair of electricity consumption at a low base. Liaoning and Guangxi have stabilized their electricity pricing expectations, and attention is being paid to the follow-up situation in other provinces. With the addition of new units entering the intensive commissioning phase, the nuclear power sector is expected to see both earnings and valuation rise. The short-term fundamentals of new energy remain weak, and attention is being paid to trends such as grid parity and ShenZhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering catalyzing the market. The main points of the report from China Galaxy Securities are as follows: The growth rate of total electricity consumption in March has slowed down, with the electricity consumption growth in the charging and swapping services industry and internet data services industry maintaining a relatively high level. In March 2026, the total electricity consumption reached 859.5 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 3.5%. The electricity consumption in the primary, secondary, tertiary industries, and urban and rural residents' daily lives were 11.3, 570.8, 160.1, and 117.2 billion kWh, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.7%, 2.0%, 7.7%, and 5.2%, respectively. In January to March 2026, the total electricity consumption accumulated to 25.141 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%, which was a slight slowdown compared to January to February 2026. In the tertiary industry, the electricity consumption in the charging and swapping services industry and internet data services industry reached 37.6 and 2.29 billion kWh, with year-on-year growth rates of 53.8% and 44.0%, maintaining a relatively high level. The growth rate of nuclear power and wind power generation in March has significantly slowed down. In March 2026, the electricity generation in the large-scale industrial sector reached 802.5 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. The year-on-year growth rates of thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaic power were +4.2%, +10.8%, -11.8%, -17.3%, and +10.0%, respectively. The slowdown in nuclear power generation is mainly affected by maintenance arrangements, while wind power generation is affected by resource conditions. In January to March 2026, the electricity generation in the large-scale industrial sector accumulated to 23.782 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, slightly lower than January to February 2026. The year-on-year growth rates of thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and photovoltaic power were +3.7%, +8.9%, -3.8%, -2.9%, and +11.2%, respectively, with a slight slowdown compared to the previous months. In March, apart from nuclear power, the year-on-year growth rates of various types of power generation capacity installation have declined, with solar power experiencing a decline of up to 56%. In January to March 2026, the national added electricity generation capacity was 83.82 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 5.78 million kilowatts or 6%. The newly added hydroelectric, thermal, nuclear, wind, and solar power capacities were 14.2, 240.3, 12.1, 157.7, and 413.9 million kilowatts, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -71, +1137, +121, +83, and -184.7 million kilowatts or -33%, +90%, -, +6, and -31%, respectively. In March 2026, the newly added electricity generation capacity in the country was 17.91 million kilowatts, a year-on-year decrease of 13.99 million kilowatts or 44%, with hydroelectric, thermal, nuclear, wind, and solar power capacities of 2, 40.7, 0, 47.3, and 89.1 million kilowatts, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -2, -200, -, -61, and -113.5 million kilowatts or -9%, -33%, -, -11%, and -56%, respectively. Risk warnings include risks related to natural resource conditions below expectations and significant increases in raw material prices.