Southwest: Rocket recovery and reuse technology breakthrough achieves low-cost high-frequency launches.

Southwest released a research report stating that the launch situation of private rockets in a year and the level of policy support have a significant impact on the sector's trend. Currently, China's commercial aerospace industry is still in the early stages of development, and the development of private rocket companies is receiving high attention from the market. The expansion of private rocket carrying capacity to a certain extent determines the development speed of China's commercial aerospace industry chain. At the same time, the support of national policies can effectively solve key development issues in the industry and help boost the development of the commercial Addsino Co., Ltd. sector. The bank recommends that investors continue to pay attention to the sector's development. Southwest's main points are as follows: According to ITU rules, it is roughly estimated that China's satellite Internet will enter a key stage of intensive network construction in the coming years. In 2020, China SatNet applied, according to ITU rules, that in the 9th year, it must complete 10% of the total constellation size, which means it needs to deploy about 1300 satellites by the end of 2029. Yuanxin Satellite's "Qianfan Constellation" needs to complete the deployment of 1500 satellites by 2032 according to the rules. Yuanxin plans to deploy 1296 satellites by the end of 2027, and complete the internet network of 15,000 Low Earth Orbit satellites by the end of 2030. In addition, China has many constellation plans, which will create a huge demand for rocket launches in the future, with an extremely broad market space. Satellite launches are gradually accelerating, while Yuanxin's satellite launch pace is slightly slower. As of April 20, 2026, both major constellations have not launched more than 200 satellites, and the bottleneck in rocket carrying capacity remains a major influencing factor on satellite launch pace. Breakthroughs in rocket reusable technology could reduce costs and achieve high-frequency launches. The increasingly obvious scale features of satellites cannot be fully met by disposable rockets alone to meet the faster, higher frequency, and cost-effective launch demand, requiring low-cost, high-capacity, high-frequency reusable rockets. Based on Musk's description of the cost structure of the "Falcon 9" rocket in 2020 and SpaceX's official website data, it can be roughly estimated that the cost of a new "Falcon 9" rocket is about $50 million, while the cost of a reusable "Falcon 9" rocket is $15 million, with the cost of recycling and launching being 30% of the cost of a disposable launch. As reusable technology matures, the reuse period will be further shortened. During the period of mature reuse (2019-2020), the average reuse period of "Falcon 9" reached about 4 months, and during the highly mature reuse period (2021-2024), the average reuse period reached about 2 months, with the shortest reuse period for a single stage being 14 days. Risk warning: Risks related to national and industry policies, insufficient rocket carrying capacity, technological risks, and intensified industry competition.