New stock preview|Skyeye Vision once again enters the Hong Kong Stock Exchange: Can L2 "nurture" L4, can software-defined break the curse of losses?

The wave of Hong Kong-listed stocks for autonomous driving adds another strong player. Recently, Suzhou Tiantong Weishi Electronic Technology Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Tiantong Weishi", English name: Calmcar) once again submitted its application for listing on the main board of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with joint sponsors including CCB International, HSBC, and Huatai International. Following Xiaoma Zhixing (02026) and Wen Yuan Zhixing (00800), Tiantong Weishi is the third autonomous driving company to make a push for a Hong Kong listing this year, marking the acceleration of the capitalization wave in the domestic intelligent driving field. From "assistance" to "autonomy": a dual-track road less traveled In the prospectus, Tiantong Weishi gave itself a precise label as "China's leading software-centric intelligent driving solution provider". Different from tech companies such as Huawei and Horizon emphasizing chip capabilities, Tiantong Weishi is taking a "software-first" approach: not building cars, not making chips, but focusing on delivering scalable, deployable software algorithms and integration solutions. The company's product matrix covers two main levels. In the L2-L2+ field, it provides integrated driving and parking solutions, as well as driver monitoring systems (DMS) and other active safety features; in the L4 field, it delves into four major application scenarios for autonomous buses, trucks, taxis, and sweepers, all of which have achieved commercialized deployment. The underlying logic of this "dual-track" layout is that L2-L2+ mass production projects provide stable income streams and engineering experience accumulation, while L4 represents the company's strategic depth in the market. More importantly, the two business lines share a high degree of commonality in underlying technological architecture - the CalmVolution data-driven AI development platform and perception and control algorithms polished in L2-L2+ projects can be directly transplanted into L4 system development, creating a compounding effect of engineering efficiency. The prospectus summarizes this as "Accumulated R&D achievements in L2-L2+ driving L4 optimization, high-quality real scenario data from L4 feedback driving L2-L2+ iteration" - a technological virtuous cycle that sets the company apart from pure L4 players with its unique barriers. In terms of market position, Tiantong Weishi's competitive position is quite convincing: based on 2024 installed capacity, the company is the second-largest software core supplier of L2-L2+ driving and parking solutions in China, and the third-largest DMS solution provider. What's more prominent is that the company is the first in China to achieve mass production and delivery of L2-L2+ solutions in overseas markets, ranking first in overseas shipments of software suppliers in China in 2024. As of the disclosure date of the prospectus, the company has obtained supply agreements for 144 models. "Triple jump" in revenue, L4 leading the charge Looking at Tiantong Weishi's financial data, the most eye-catching aspect is the revenue surge in 2024. From 2022 to 2024, the company's revenues were 172 million yuan, 204 million yuan, and 483 million yuan respectively, with a 136.8% year-on-year growth in 2024, achieving a "nearly triple in three years" leap in revenue. As we enter 2025, the growth rate has not shown significant signs of slowing down - with revenue of 157 million yuan in the first half of the year, a staggering 182% year-on-year growth. The core engine driving this growth is the comprehensive breakout of the L4 business. In 2023, the L2-L2+ business contributed over 90% of the company's revenue; but by 2024, the revenue from L4 solutions surged to 243 million yuan, accounting for more than 50% of total revenue, and further expanding to 57.2% in the first half of 2025. From being a "secondary project" to becoming the main source of revenue, L4 completed a silent power transition within the company. Revenue recognition for L4 business primarily comes from two paths: customized development fees charged during software development and engineering stages, and software licensing fees charged based on the number of vehicles upon entering mass production and delivery stages. In the first half of 2025, revenue from L4 integrated software and hardware solutions soared, confirming that the company's L4 business has moved from the R&D phase to a phase of scalable delivery. Profit margins have remained relatively stable in the 30-35% range over three years, rising to 32.4% in the first half of 2025. However, this level is not outstanding within the industry - competitors like Horizon Siasun Robot & Automation have gross profit margins exceeding 45%, highlighting the real pressure on Tiantong Weishi to sacrifice profits to gain market share downstream. Three and a half years of losses totaling 1.2 billion, the mystery of a "halved" R&D ratio On the flip side of the revenue surge is the ongoing expansion of losses. From 2022 to 2024, Tiantong Weishi reported net losses of 325 million yuan, 231 million yuan, and 463 million yuan respectively, adding another 193 million yuan in the first half of 2025, resulting in a cumulative loss of over 1.2 billion yuan in three and a half years. One detail that puzzles outsiders is the sharp decline in the company's R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue, shifting from 108.7% in 2022 to 24.2% in 2024, and further compressing to 11.6% in the first half of 2025. Such a significant "reduction" could be due to proactive downsizing of R&D, or there may be another hidden reason behind it. The company's explanation is that L2-L2+ level technologies have matured, and some expenses previously classified under research and development (R&D) have been reclassified as operating costs (COGS) as projects transition into mass production, so the absolute R&D amount has not been significantly reduced. However, analysts point out that the company's operating cash flow has been negative for several years (accumulating about 500 million yuan in net outflows from 2022 to 2024), indicating that Tiantong Weishi has not yet achieved self-sustainability and still relies heavily on financing. Adjusted non-IFRS losses, on the other hand, paint a different picture. After excluding non-operating items such as fair value changes in financial liabilities and listing expenses, the adjusted loss for the full year of 2024 had shrunk to just 4.378 million yuan, nearing breakeven; the adjusted loss for the first half of 2025 was only 417.2 million yuan, indicating an improving cash generation ability at the core business level. 10 billion yuan in orders: the sky's the limit for L4's potential The core narrative of this IPO revolves around the commercial prospects of the L4 business. As of the disclosure date of the prospectus, Tiantong Weishi has secured orders for L4 level solutions, with a total contract value of around 10 billion yuan, covering over 2500 Robobuses, Robotaxis, and Robotrucks, scheduled for delivery within the next three to five years. As early as 2019, the company achieved the commercialization of L4 through its participation in the 5G intelligent heavy truck project at Yangshan Port, laying a strong foundation for the company in closed environments such as ports and industrial parks. Tiantong Weishi positions itself as a pure technology service provider, offering software solutions to fleet operators without owning vehicles or engaging in daily operations, thus avoiding the financial pressure of capital-intensive operations. However, the company also revealed plans to gradually transition towards an integrated model of "product + operation + data services" in the L4 business, and to expand the commercial vehicle brand "CalmTruck" to cover vertical sectors such as mining vehicles and low-speed delivery with Siasun Robot & Automation. Guosheng predicts that by 2030, the Robotaxi market in China's first and second tier cities could reach 242.4 billion yuan. However, on the road to this goal, the cross-provincial operation of L4 unmanned trucks involves complex coordination on the regulatory front, and most L4 commercial vehicles still require safety personnel, implying that achieving cost reductions may take another two to three years before the market truly scales up to optimistic estimates. A crowded track and the cost of surviving the life-or-death line In the L2-L2+ assisted driving market, Tiantong Weishi faces a fiercely competitive landscape. On one hand, companies like BYD Company Limited, Ideal, and other carmakers are accelerating their self-developed technologies, squeezing out the survival space of third-party suppliers through the trend of vertical integration in the industry chain; on the other hand, players like Momenta, ForayTek, and DJI Car Cargo are equally strong in technology and customer resources. Momenta's CEO publicly predicted that by 2026, there may only be 2-3 companies left in the domestic urban assisted driving field, signaling the onset of a harsh wave of consolidation. In the L4 commercialization race, Xiaoma Zhixing, Wen Yuan Zhixing have already opened the doors to the Hong Kong stock market ahead of Tiantong Weishi, intensifying the competition for IPO funding. For Tiantong Weishi, positioned as a "technology outsourcing company", bargaining power is a long-term concern - facing powerful car manufacturers, there is limited space to pass on costs, which is the fundamental reason why its gross profit margin has consistently hovered around 30%, lower than the industry average. Overall, Tiantong Weishi's story is a classic case of being "technologically advanced but awaiting profit verification": the accumulation of L2-L2+ mass production has solidified its engineering barriers and cash base, the breakthrough in commercializing L4 provides valuation potential, and its early lead in overseas markets has built a differentiated defense. Compared to many in the industry who are "all talk and no revenue" in the purely autonomous driving sector, Tiantong Weishi indeed has more solid evidence of commercial success. But the other side of the coin is equally clear: over 12 billion yuan in losses over three and a half years, long-term negative cash flow, and strategic shareholders exiting on the eve of the IPO - the combination of these three signals makes it challenging for the capital market to be overly optimistic in pricing this IPO.