Wall Street insists on being bullish: the pressure of gold falling still exists, but the short-term volatility does not change the medium-term upward trend

The situation in the Middle East once again affects the global financial markets. On Wednesday, Iran seized two cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and President Trump stated that the United States will continue to block Iranian ports, with no signs of peace talks restarting. Brent crude oil futures rose nearly 4% to $102.2 per barrel in response. Meanwhile, the precious metals market ended two days of decline, with COMEX April gold futures closing up 0.82% at $4758.30 per ounce and silver futures up 1.56% at $77.69 per ounce. On Thursday, gold prices fell slightly. Short-term susceptibility to geopolitical shocks: Uncertainty in ceasefire agreements The direct trigger for the recent stabilizing rebound in gold and silver prices was the escalation of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. According to Reuters, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard's Navy Command claimed that the two seized cargo ships - the "Epaminondas" and "MSC-Francesca" - were sailing without permission and had turned off their automatic identification systems in an attempt to pass through the strait. The UK Maritime Trade Operations Office confirmed that a Greek cargo ship was attacked by Iranian gunboats and rocket fire in the northeastern waters of Oman, resulting in severe damage to the bridge. This is the first substantial military action taken by Iran to seize ships since the outbreak of US-Iran conflict at the end of February, intensifying the struggle for control over the global energy supply. Iranian Speaker of Parliament and negotiation representative Kalibaf subsequently made strong comments accusing the US of continuing to violate the ceasefire agreement with its maritime blockade and emphasizing that reopening the Strait of Hormuz is "completely impossible" before the US lifts the blockade. Iranian President Pezeshkiyan also criticized the inconsistency in US words and actions - despite Trump accepting Pakistani mediation and extending the ceasefire period, he also instructed the US military to maintain the blockade and stay prepared. However, the macro perspective is not unilaterally favorable for precious metals. The US Dollar Index closed up 0.23% at 98.61 on Wednesday, and the 10-year US bond yield closed at 4.307%, both trending strong and providing sustained pressure on zero-yielding assets like gold. Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Wash made it clear during a Senate hearing that he did not promise Trump a rate cut, emphasized acting independently, and the market's expectation of a rate cut by the Fed in 2026 further converged - federal fund futures show only a 28% probability of a rate cut by the end of the year. This indicates that geopolitical risks and macro interest rate pressures are forming a hedge pattern in gold pricing. The analysis of analysts at Shengbao Bank aligns closely with this: Trump's extension of the ceasefire agreement reduces the direct risk of military escalation and the threat of inflation caused by further oil price spikes, while also putting pressure on the US dollar. Until the path to a peace agreement becomes clearer, gold and silver may still be vying with the US dollar for direction, leading to temporary fluctuations within a certain range. Wall Street remains positive about the long-term prospects of gold Amid the dual uncertainties of geopolitics and macro interest rates, major Wall Street banks remain positive about the long-term prospects of gold. Goldman Sachs maintains its judgment that there will be two rate cuts later this year, attributing the short-term decline to technical corrections and position unwinding, while the mid-term logic remains intact - supported by continued central bank gold purchases, relatively low speculative positions, and the eventual return of rate cut expectations. JPMorgan Chase offers a more bullish logic: the rigidity of supply, central bank gold purchases, and a long-term gap in de-dollarization will continue to drive prices up, even if the bank holds a hawkish position on interest rates (no rate cuts in 2026). Morgan Stanley takes a relatively cautious stance, believing that the rise in oil prices pushing inflation will suppress rate cut expectations, combined with profit-taking pressure from previous gains, suggesting that gold may experience short-term weakness but remains positive in the long term. Bank of America and UBS each provide support for the long-term gold price from the perspectives of a weakening US dollar and geopolitical uncertainties. In terms of price targets, mainstream institutions forecast a range of $5000 to $6300 per ounce for gold by the end of 2026. Morgan Stanley's latest research report predicts a gold price of $5200 per ounce in the second half of 2026, representing approximately 8% upward potential from the current level. Standard Chartered Bank also believes that recent small price increases are fragile and face short-term correction risks, but it still expects precious metal prices to rise, with gold retesting historical highs. On the technical front, Forex.com analyst Razan Hilal points out that gold prices are consolidating below a key resistance level, reflecting a technical structure similar to the breakout pattern seen earlier in 2026. Silver prices indicate a pattern that may presage "sharp directional volatility." Hilal suggests that a drop in gold prices to $4640 per ounce could trigger further declines, while the key support level for silver is $75 per ounce.