Don't be too optimistic about the US-Iran ceasefire? Barcely: The market seriously underestimates the impact of oil and gas supply disruptions.

On Tuesday afternoon, Eastern Time, President Trump of the United States announced on social media the extension of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. On Wednesday, Eastern Time, the White House Press Secretary Levi further stated that Trump has not set a final deadline for extending the ceasefire with Iran. Although this news temporarily eased concerns about the reignition of Middle East conflicts, Barclays Bank warned that the market should not be overly optimistic about this development because the US and Iran have yet to reach a true peace agreement, and the extension of the ceasefire has not had any substantial impact on the transportation of oil and natural gas through the Strait of Hormuz. Barclays emphasized that the interruption of oil and gas transportation through the Strait of Hormuz continues to harm the global energy market, and the trends in stock and futures markets have not fully reflected this impact, with pricing for the scale of supply disruptions falling short. Barclays analyst Lydia Rainforth stated in a report that the interruption of oil and gas transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has lasted for over 50 days, with over 600 million barrels of oil shipments blocked, causing a disruption of over 10 million barrels of oil supply per day. Barclays pointed out that the ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports has tightened the supply in the physical energy market, and "hardly allows any ships to pass on the Iranian side." Barclays added that there are still an estimated 20,000 seafarers stranded on ships in the Persian Gulf, and these ships are still facing security threats. According to reports from authoritative media, the UK Maritime Trade Operations Office issued a notice on its official website on the 22nd stating that a container ship was attacked 15 nautical miles northeast of Oman. The ship's captain reported that an Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps boat approached the ship and fired, causing serious damage to the ship. Barclays Bank analysts believe that the market has not fully realized the actual impact of the current supply disruptions. The bank believes that the current prices of US oil stocks suggest that the market has already priced long-term oil prices at levels between $60 and $65 per barrel, which is clearly too optimistic. They advise investors to "take advantage of the recent bearish market to build positions" and expect oil prices to rise in the coming months. This article was translated from Caishishe, GMTEight Editing: Lifo.