Iran seizes two ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, causing the price of Brent oil to rise by 3% and return to above $100.

On Wednesday, oil prices rose. Brent crude oil prices rose by more than 3%, closing at $101.91 per barrel. WTI crude oil prices also rose by more than 3%, settling at $92.96 per barrel. The immediate trigger for the surge in oil prices was Iran's tough actions. According to Iranian media reports, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced on Wednesday that they had seized two container ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz "without authorization." This action took place just hours after U.S. President Trump announced an extension of the temporary ceasefire agreement with Iran. During times of war, oil exports from oil-producing countries in the Gulf region significantly decreased, leading to the most serious oil supply interruption in history. Due to the dangerous security situation, tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remained light on Wednesday. After plans for a second round of peace talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan fell apart on Tuesday, Trump extended the temporary ceasefire agreement. The U.S. president claimed that the Iranian leadership was divided. He stated that the ceasefire agreement would remain in effect until Iranian leaders proposed a unified solution to end hostile actions against Washington and Israel. The extension of the ceasefire agreement highlights the uncertainty of the prospect of easing tensions. While this postpones the imminent risk of military strikes, it also indicates that there has yet to be a clear diplomatic breakthrough that would fully open the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy, said that while the Iranian leadership may be divided, they are still functioning. McNally stated that the Tehran regime is confident that they hold the upper hand in the game with Trump. He said, "They are prepared to endure six months of agony to continue choking this lifeline, waiting for further oil price increases that could eventually lead to a stock market decline. They believe they will ultimately survive this conflict, not only to teach others a lesson but possibly even to control the Strait of Hormuz." Looking ahead, the market's focus will be on two key variables: whether the U.S. will take military or escort responses to Iran's seizure of ships, and whether the Trump administration can restart substantive negotiations involving the details of lifting the maritime blockade with Iran. Analysts believe that until there is a substantial restoration of freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, geopolitical risk premiums on oil prices are unlikely to easily dissipate, and the hundred-dollar oil price may become a new short-term equilibrium range in the market.