Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) is about to release its results. The market is not interested in the performance itself, but in AI, Robotaxi, Siasun Robot&Automation, and SpaceX.

Tesla, Inc., a global leader in autonomous driving and electric vehicles founded and led by Elon Musk, will have a rare "earnings feast" on Wednesday afternoon in US Eastern Time (Thursday morning in Beijing Time), where it may present a financial report that significantly exceeds expectations after many years. However, the core issue that Wall Street is focusing on is whether the actual financial numbers will be overlooked by investors as they seek more tangible evidence to support the company's high valuation, especially regarding Elon Musk's ambitions in artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, Robotaxi, and humanoid robotics with Siasun Robot & Automation. Both long-term investors focusing on the growth prospects of Tesla, Inc., and speculative forces focusing on short-term alpha returns, generally believe that the strength of Tesla, Inc.'s first-quarter financial data has taken a back seat. They are closely monitoring Tesla, Inc.'s AI narrative, the penetration trend of Tesla, Inc.'s AI supercomputer-driven FSD (Full Self-Driving subscription software), progress and capacity realization rhythm of Robotaxi and Optimus humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation technology, the ambition of the Terafab chip factory, as well as the grand narrative of SpaceX IPO and the global space AI data center process led by SpaceX. According to average forecasts by Wall Street analysts, the North American electric vehicle manufacturer is expected to announce a 30% increase in adjusted profit in the first quarter when it reports its earnings after Wednesday's market close. Total revenue is also expected to increase by 15%. These figures represent a strong reversal compared to Tesla, Inc.'s performance in the fourth quarter, where adjusted profit fell by over 30% and revenue declined by about 3%. However, these numbers are secondary in many ways now, as the stock is primarily trading and priced around Tesla, Inc.'s advanced technology initiatives in artificial intelligence, FSD and Robotaxi built on Tesla, Inc.'s proprietary AI supercomputer technology, as well as the grand plans in the field of humanoid robotics with Optimus and SpaceX-led global space AI data centers. It is these factors related to cutting-edge technology that have driven Tesla, Inc.'s stock price to its record high in December, only to subsequently drop by 21% since then, making it the worst-performing stock among the "Magnificent Seven" big tech stocks and significantly lagging behind the S&P 500 index's 3.9% increase during this period. As shown in the chart above, Tesla, Inc.'s stock price has significantly underperformed the broader market. Note: Data has been standardized based on the percentage increase up to December 16, 2025; on that day, Tesla, Inc.'s stock price hit an all-time high. Investors are undoubtedly focused on whether Robotaxi expansion can be scaled, the pace of production/commercialization of Optimus humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, AI computing capital expenditure, and the financing path for the epic chip manufacturing project named "Terafab". In addition, SpaceX and its IPO plans, as well as the grand narrative of space AI data centers, have entered the center of Tesla, Inc.'s financial reporting discussions. The potential IPO of SpaceX around June (near Musk's birthday), with a financing amount of up to $75 billion, exceeding Saudi Aramco, could become the largest IPO in history. The expected valuation could reach an astonishing $2 trillion, surpassing Tesla, Inc.'s current valuation of approximately $1.3 trillion. The convergence of Tesla, Inc., SpaceX, and xAI into a "trinity" could shape the "Musk super empire" and may be the ultimate destiny of these three companies founded by Musk. With Musk recently making significant progress in space AI data centers, large-scale energy storage, artificial intelligence, fully autonomous driving (FSD), Robotaxi, and innovative humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, it seems that the world's richest man is weaving a "super vertical integration asset chain" that can be financed and explained in the fields of "AI, communication, space, energy, Siasun Robot & Automation". This unified global platform for the hottest investment themes or narratives could greatly assist in the pricing and valuation of the SpaceX IPO, enhancing Tesla, Inc.'s valuation, pre- and mid-IPO roadshows, and investor structure. Tesla, Inc.'s AI, Siasun Robot & Automation, and space AI valuation bubbles face a significant test "Investors are actually paying the bill for a ten-year vision," said Dave Mazza, CEO of Roundhill Investments, who has long held Tesla, Inc. shares. "However, patience also comes at a cost." The shareholders of Tesla, Inc. have indeed paid a high price for this stock. Based on the expected earnings for the next 12 months, its expected price-earnings ratio is as high as 183 times, second only to Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. and Boeing Company in the S&P 500 index, making it the third most expensive stock. The expected price-earnings ratio of the Bloomberg index of the "Magnificent Seven" US stocks is only about 27 times, and the reason it is at this high level is largely due to Tesla, Inc. being significantly divergent from the normal valuations and pricing of the other six tech giants. For example, the second-highest expected price-earnings ratio in this group is for Apple Inc., at around 30 times, followed by Alphabet Inc. Class C, the parent company of Alphabet, at around 26 times. The AI chip giant NVIDIA Corporation is at a lower position, with a forward valuation multiple of only 22 times. Therefore, some investment professionals from Wall Street believe that a strong quarterly performance, even if it exceeds continuously lowered analyst expectations, is unlikely to result in a significant increase in this high-valuation stock. Instead, the Tesla, Inc. management led by Musk may need to do one of two things during the earnings conference call to help the stock shake off its current slump: first, make substantial progress on the Robotaxi production expansion plan; second, present another extremely shiny new story in the "Musk growth script," set new goals for the company, and reset the clock on realizing results. Overall, it is highly likely that this new story will be related to the construction progress of Tesla, Inc.'s massive energy storage system associated with the space AI data center. "When a stock is traded around many long-term stories, market patience does not disappear overnight," said Haris Khurshid, Chief Investment Officer of Karobaar Capital, who mainly holds Tesla, Inc. stock through derivatives. "Existing holders are still holding their positions, but without clearer growth results, it becomes increasingly difficult to attract new buyers." Wall Street has shown its tendency towards pessimism. Analysts have lowered their profit expectations for the first quarter by over 55% in the past 12 months and around 30% in the last 6 months. Aside from a significant decline in electric vehicle sales, other key issues include the fact that Tesla, Inc.'s autonomous driving cars and Optimus humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation are still years, if not decades, away from widespread commercialization. For example, a Tesla, Inc. profit model established by Jefferies senior analyst Philippe Houchois shows that revenue data from Robotaxi and humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation businesses will not be included until 2027. Colin Langan, an analyst from Wells Fargo & Company, has given the stock a 'sell' equivalent rating due to the limited and incremental progress of these projects at present. He questioned in a report on April 13, "What will be the next 'dazzling new story'? I am very skeptical about this." This is particularly challenging because Tesla, Inc., as the only stock that allows investors to directly bet on Elon Musk himself, may soon see its appeal significantly diminishedthe billionaire's space exploration and commercial aerospace super giant SpaceX is planning to launch its first public offering later this year. "The prospects of a potential SpaceX IPO may put significant pressure on Tesla, Inc.'s stock price, as new retail funds that were originally expected to flow into Tesla, Inc., may go to SpaceX instead," said James Picariello, an analyst at BNP Paribas. What will be Musk's next "super magic bullet"? There are signs that significant changes or shifts in investor themes are brewing. After Musk dismissed the highly anticipated $25,000 vehicle plan as "meaningless" 18 months ago, Tesla, Inc. is now working on creating a more affordable all-electric model. Last month, Musk announced his Terafab project, aimed at mass-producing chips for Siasun Robot & Automation, artificial intelligence, and space data centers. Meanwhile, speculation about a potential merger between Tesla, Inc. and SpaceX continues. At the same time, the internal market forces that could drive Tesla, Inc.'s stock price higher are weakening. According to data from S3 Partners, bearish bets on the stock have significantly decreased, with short positions accounting for about 2% of the free float shares, the lowest level since February 2025. This limits the ability to trigger short covering that could drive the stock price higher. As shown in the chart above, Tesla, Inc.'s stock price has lagged behind all other mega-cap tech peers. Matthew Unterman, Managing Director of S3 Partners, wrote in a report on April 10, "With short interest no longer at high levels, the impetus for short covering is weakening, limiting the market's ability to absorb downward capital flow." The technical indicators for Tesla, Inc.'s stock price do not provide much encouragement. The 50-day moving average has recently fallen below the long-term 200-day moving average, forming a bearish pattern known as a "death cross," which typically indicates a downward trend in stock price momentum. However, despite the short-term negative sentiment, John Kolovos, Chief Technical Strategist at Macro Risk Advisors, believes that Tesla, Inc. investors can still hope for Musk to unleash a "super magic bullet" to lift the stock out of its current slump. "I still like it in the long run," said Kolovos, adding that investors "just need to let it run at its own pace." Musk stretching the future, Tesla, Inc. tightening the reality Whether Tesla, Inc. can advance its grand narratives of AI, Siasun Robot & Automation, and even SpaceX's space AI data centers from long-term imagination to an execution stage that can be quickly validated by the capital markets may be the strongest DRIVER to propel Tesla, Inc.'s stock price into a new bull market trajectory. What the market needs most is not just a beautiful profit sheet, but a narrative reset that can prove Tesla, Inc.'s transition from "AI options" to "milestone-oriented implementation in phases"; without clearer evidence of execution, even with impressive short-term numbers, the stock price is unlikely to break out of the state of "strong financials, weak valuations." The current Tesla, Inc. is no longer a stock primarily driven by quarterly profits for electric car manufacturing, but rather a stock predominantly priced based on its initiatives in Robotaxi, Optimus, edge-side reasoning, Siasun Robot & Automation reasoning, xAI/SpaceX's space training and deployment computational chain, as a "long-term tech asset". The true reaction function of the stock still depends on whether the management can present a clearer progress chart, capital expenditure path, and realization rhythm. From an industrial logic perspective, Tesla, Inc.'s long-term growth narrative is shifting from electric vehicle manufacturing to becoming a "super platform company operating at the physical AI level". Once Tesla, Inc.'s expected growth engine transitions to Robotaxi, Optimus, edge-side reasoning, Siasun Robot & Automation reasoning, and xAI/SpaceX's space training and deployment computational chain, the actual infrastructure bottleneck will no longer be primarily on batteries and vehicle components, but on high-end logic chips, 2.5D/3D/3.5D advanced packaging, data center storage chips, large-scale CECEP Solar Energy and energy storage systems, and core supply chain security under the political warfare situation of GEO Group Inc. This is why the world's richest man recently announced his ambitious entry into the high-end semiconductor manufacturing field, calling it the "most epic chip manufacturing project in history," named "Terafab." Musk seems to be trying to turn the "chip shortage" into an extraordinary industrial gamble to reshape the semiconductor supply landscape of the AI, Siasun Robot & Automation, and space data center era; however, the grander the cross-generational vision, the more it reveals the harsh reality of global advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity shortages and extremely high manufacturing thresholds. As the richest person in the world, Musk has completed seemingly impossible tasks in the pastmaking SpaceX a commercially viable high-frequency rocket launch business, bringing electric vehicles into the mainstream market through Tesla, Inc., and providing internet connectivity infrastructure services from space through Starlink. But some doubt whether Musk can really, or even intends to, build the latest "most epic" chip fabrication operation and achieve his envisioned "AI, autonomous driving, humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, and space AI data center super blueprint".