Zhongtai: Still optimistic about technology and gold in the medium term, but need to pay attention to the sustainability of liquidity overflow.

Zhongtai released a research report stating that as of April 17, 2026, the global market continued its risk-on trend, with equity markets performing strongly and growth stocks significantly outperforming value stocks. Market risk preference continued to improve, mainly driven by the squeeze-out of geopolitical risk premiums, high prosperity in the AI industry chain, and resilient support from economic data in China and the US. The liquidity environment remains a key variable for market sustainability, and it is recommended to "control positions and prioritize structure." In the short term, the bank's view on various assets is: equities > overseas commodities > domestic commodities > bonds. The main points of Zhongtai are as follows: Equity market: The global equity market continues to be risk-on, with the probability of a "bull market" in the A-share market still low. This week, the Nasdaq index (+6.84%), the ChiNext index (+6.65%), and the South Korean KOSPI200 index (+5.99%) led the way, showing a structure where growth stocks > value stocks, and technology > dividends. The main trading themes include: continuous squeeze-out of geopolitical risk premiums, validation of high prosperity in the AI and semiconductor industry chains, and enhanced resilience in macroeconomic data in China and the US, supporting expectations of a soft landing in the economy. Looking ahead, the extremely abundant liquidity environment is not stable, with low short-term interest rates in China and limited depreciation space for the US dollar. In the medium term, there is no significant systemic risk of a major downturn in the A-share market, but the probability of a "bull market" is low, so it is recommended to "control positions and prioritize structure." Commodity market: The medium-term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, industrial metals such as copper and aluminum have overall support, the center of crude oil prices may rise, but further substantial upside is limited. Gold can still be held firmly in the medium term, with the core driving factor being the marginal weakening of the US dollar credit system and expectations of a decline in real interest rates. A biased optimistic view is held for industrial metals represented by copper and aluminum, benefiting from overseas economic recovery and demand for new energy, with supply and demand fundamentals re-establishing dominance over price movements. Further upside for oil prices is limited, with geopolitical premiums quickly returning, combined with OPEC+ production increases and downward demand expectations, high oil prices will gradually reveal their damaging effects on the demand side. Bond market: Government bond yields in various regions are on a general downward trend, with the domestic bond market expected to shake slightly stronger. Both long-term and short-term interest rates in China are falling, mainly driven by loose funding conditions; US bond long and short-term rates are also falling and the yield spread is widening, primarily due to waning risk aversion and marginal declines in inflation expectations; in addition, European internal yield spreads are narrowing, and risk preferences are somewhat recovering. Looking ahead, the domestic bond market is expected to shake slightly stronger, with the central bank maintaining a stable and loose monetary policy providing bottom support for yields, but the issuance of special long-term government bonds and local government special bonds will bring supply pressure, which may lead to a steep change in the yield curve. Risk warning: Global liquidity tightening beyond expectations, complexity of market games beyond expectations, complexity of policy changes beyond expectations, limitations of data and models, and the risk of outdated information in research reports.