Guotai Haitong: The high oil transport prosperity will continue to be sustainable, providing both performance and valuation double space.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that it maintains a buy rating on oil shipping, and the high prosperity is expected to exceed expectations. Oil shipping has entered a period of high prosperity, and the escalation of the Middle East situation in 2026 provides an opportunity for gray market changes. It is suggested to pay attention to the continuous impact of gray market changes, and oil shipping is expected to achieve super high prosperity and sustainability, providing a dual space for performance valuation. Guotai Haitong's main points are as follows: Freight tracking: Expectations for the resumption of passage through the strait to increase, oil shipping high prosperity is expected to continue 1) Crude oil shipping: Expectations for passage through the strait are increasing, high prosperity is expected to continue, recent small vessel freight rates have fallen but are still at historically high levels 2) Refined oil shipping: Some refined oil tankers are transferring crude oil through tank washing, westward freight rates remain high, and high prosperity continues to be transmitted eastward 3) Dry bulk shipping: Major mining companies continue to release cargo, and freight rates continue to rise 4) Container freight rates: Recent mainline freight volumes are stable, with rates on the US route continuing to outperform the European route Oil shipping: Two-stage achievement of "super bull market" First stage: Geopolitical conflicts drive global crude oil trade restructuring, with Russia and Europe lengthening shipping distances, driving oil shipping prosperity to soar for more than three years, with capacity utilization reaching a threshold. Second stage opens: Global crude oil production increases, driving continued growth in oil shipping demand. Effective supply of oil tankers remains rigid, and future supply and demand are expected to continue to move towards good prosperity and have the option for unexpected grey market changes. Dry bulk shipping: Remote iron ore production opens up, prosperity expected to gradually increase In 2021-22, benefiting from the spillover demand from the super high prosperity of the bulk shipping industry, the transformation from dry to bulk driving freight performance. In 2023-24, post-epidemi...