YIDU TECH (02158) expected to be profitable: AI healthcare technology reaches "coming of age", the underlying logic of the road to a market value of one trillion has become clearer.

On April 20, YIDU TECH (02158) announced a profit forecast, injecting a shot in the arm for the entire AI medical track. The company expects to achieve a net profit of 55 million to 70 million yuan in the 2026 fiscal year, turning a full-year profit for the first time in its 11-year history. This is not just a financial turnaround for a company, but a landmark event for the commercial realization of AI medical technology in China - vertical medical AI has finally completed the loop from "burning money on research and development" to "self-sustaining". Turning point established: From the "loss deepwater zone" to the "profit safety zone" Looking back over the past few years, AI medical technology has been mired in doubts about "high input, low output, difficult profitability". YIDU TECH's performance reversal this time can be attributed to clear core DRIVE: AI capabilities deeply integrated into the product matrix, significant increase in new orders, and a qualitative change in gross profit margin and operational efficiency. In the first half of the 2026 fiscal year, the company's adjusted EBITDA has reached 54 million yuan, doubling year-on-year, with losses narrowing by 72% compared to the same period last year, and the profit turning point arriving a year earlier than expected. This mid-term report has laid the foundation for a profitable full year. The recent consecutive wins of the Beijing Tumor Hospital AI project (about 4.88 million yuan) and the Hainan Provincial Public Health Emergency Platform project (nearly 12.89 million yuan) have solidly supported profitability from a business perspective. The former is a benchmark deployment of medical AI large models in top tumor specialized hospitals, and the latter is a continuous verification of the digital capabilities of provincial public health - the "hospital end + public health end" dual-drive pattern has taken shape. The essence of the track: solving the ten-thousand-level market of disease and medical needs YIDU TECH is not anchored in marginal technological innovation, but in the world's largest and most rigid demand - disease diagnosis and treatment and health management. China's total health care expenditure exceeds 8 trillion yuan and continues to grow; population aging, high incidence of chronic diseases, and imbalance between supply and demand of high-quality medical resources make any AI tool that can improve diagnostic and treatment efficiency, reduce misdiagnosis rates, and optimize resource allocation have huge commercial value. Unlike general SaaS or general AI, the barriers to entry for medical AI are extremely high: data compliance, clinical interpretability, evidence-based medicine, regulatory access... every aspect requires long-term accumulation. YIDU TECH has accumulated nearly 7 billion medical records through YiduCore, covering over 1.3 billion patient visits - not fragmented single visits, but complete full course sequence data (diagnosis, treatment, follow-up, outcome). Competitors starting from scratch, if they want to catch up to the same depth, face unimaginable financial and time costs. Deep cultivation of the "basic operating system": The flywheel effect of YiduCore If YIDU TECH is seen as a "medical intelligent body company", then YiduCore is its underlying operating system. This system continues to evolve, from supporting early data governance and disease-specific databases, to giving birth to the current Clinical Copilots, evidence-based intelligent body "Medisease Smart Loop" and so on, YiduCore has achieved a flywheel acceleration of "data-algorithm-scenario". Take "Medisease Smart Loop" for example, the product selects more than 30,000 clinical guidelines, over 20 million high-quality medical literature, and constructs a knowledge base jointly reviewed by authoritative institutions such as People's Health Publishing House, and can continuously track the latest results of top journals such as NEJM, Lancet, JAMA. Its core value lies in being "evidence-based, traceable conclusions, interpretable diagnosis and treatment", inhibiting large model illusions from the source. This ability is precisely the "deep water zone" that general large models cannot handle. Currently, solutions based on the evidence engine of "Medisease Smart Loop" have been implemented in more than 40 Class III hospitals, deeply involved in over 500,000 clinical decision-making processes. And, YIDU TECH's hospital network covers over 10,000 medical institutions, serving 17 of the world's top 20 pharmaceutical companies. Take the Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Prevention and Control Center as an example, the two parties have evolved from data governance cooperation in 2019 to large model application in 2025, and launched over a hundred AI application smart bodies - this is not a single project, but a decade-long deep cooperation ecosystem, with high customer replacement costs. Core beneficiaries of the wave of paying by disease separately (DRG / DIP) China's medical insurance payment reform is fully implementing the payment by diagnosis-related group (DRG) and payment by disease point value (DIP). The core logic of this model is: same disease, same price, forcing hospitals to control costs, increase efficiency, and improve the quality of diagnosis and treatment. Under this background, hospitals urgently need AI tools that can assist clinical decision-making, optimize treatment pathways, and avoid unreasonable costs. YIDU TECH's Clinical Copilot and Medisease Smart Loop provide evidence-based treatment recommendations, cost estimates and pathway optimizations, helping doctors make the best clinical decisions under the constraints of DRG/DIP. This is not just an efficiency tool, but also a "fundamental infrastructure" for hospitals to cope with payment reform. As payment by disease becomes more widespread nationwide, YIDU TECH is expected to shift from being "optional" to "mandatory", with a systemic increase in market penetration and average revenue per user. From the profit turning point to a market value of hundreds of billions: the path is clear YIDU TECH's profit forecast this time marks the company's crossing of the technology exploration period and the commercialization pain period. Looking ahead, its growth path can be broken down into three levels: Deepening existing customers: Of the more than 10,000 medical institutions, many have not upgraded to AI intelligent body modules, leaving room for a multiple-fold increase in single-hospital ARPU values. Expansion into new scenarios: Extending from hospitals to public health departments, pharmaceutical companies, and personal health management. The B2B2C model of Medisease Smart Loop has opened up room for imagination - future value-added services such as tokenized billing, academic promotion for pharmaceutical companies, etc., will bring high-margin incremental revenue. Global replication: YIDU TECH's technical capabilities and evidence-based system have the potential to be exported to other emerging markets, and overseas strategies have already begun. Referring to the valuation system of global medical AI leaders and similar profitable targets in the Hong Kong stock market, the current PE central of the sector is about 30-45 times. If YIDU TECH's net profit for the 2026 fiscal year is taken as the median value of 62.5 million yuan, and calculated at a PE of 45 times, the market value corresponding to profit alone is about 2.8 billion Hong Kong dollars; however, the company's annualized revenue for the first half of the 2026 fiscal year has reached about 720 million yuan, and is on a high-growth trajectory. A more reasonable valuation method should consider its data assets, customer network, AI product order growth rate, and in-hand orders (the in-hand orders for the big data platform and solution business have exceeded 400 million yuan, with new order growth of 19%). Citi Bank has set a target price of 11 Hong Kong dollars, with a sufficient margin of safety based on segmental aggregation valuation. And the company has repurchased 34 times this year, with an amount of nearly 240 million Hong Kong dollars, making it the most aggressive repurchaser in the Hong Kong AI medical sector - the management's judgment of intrinsic value is evident. China's AI medical industry is officially an "adult" YIDU TECH's profit forecast should not be simply interpreted as a beautiful financial report. It declares that the Chinese AI medical industry has moved beyond the stage of pure "technological romanticism" and entered a new era of coexistence of "technological idealism" and "commercial realism". From tumor specialties to provincial public health, from clinical evidence platforms to intelligent body ecosystems, what YIDU TECH has built is an industrial new model with AI as the core DRIVE and the ultimate goal of medical value enhancement. Driven by the ten-thousand-level disease management market, the hundred-billion medical AI track, and the dividend of payment reform, this newly profitable company is standing at the starting point of the road to a hundred-billion market value. And profit is just the beginning.