New Stock Outlook | Yipin Nutrition Resubmitting: Aiming to become the "number one stock in goat milk powder", will FSMP be the second growth curve?

In recent years, driven by consumer upgrading and a focus on health, the trend of dairy consumption has gradually become more segmented. In response to the changing demands of consumers, milk powder brands mainly rely on hardcore formula innovation to meet market needs and gain a competitive edge. With the gradual growth of populations with allergies, lactose intolerance, and poor digestion and absorption, low-allergen goat milk powder has become a nutritional supplement outside of cow's milk and plant-based milk, ushering in a broader growth space. Recently, Yipin Nutrition Science and Technology (Qingdao) Group Co., Ltd. submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, planning to list on the main board of the Hong Kong stock market. This is after the initial submission failed on August 31, 2025, with HAITONG INT'L and China Securities Co., Ltd. International remaining as joint sponsors. Focusing on the low-allergy track, consolidating market share According to the company's official website, Yipin Dairy's predecessor was the Beian City Dairy Factory, founded in 1956, with nearly 70 years of dairy production history. Currently, the company has established a national layout of "one group center, one technology innovation center, four large ranches, nine production bases, eight product systems." Yipin Nutrition currently focuses on two main tracks: goat milk powder and special medical use formula food (FSMP). It provides dietary solutions for populations with allergies, lactose intolerance, and poor digestion and absorption, with products covering infant goat milk powder, FSMP, infant formula milk powder, adult and children's milk powder, OEM and dairy raw materials, etc. According to Frost & Sullivan data, based on retail sales corresponding to 2024 products, the company ranks second in the Chinese goat milk powder market with a market share of 14.0%; second in the Chinese infant formula goat milk powder market with a market share of 17.6%; and second in the Chinese infant FSMP market with a market share of 4.5%. Financially, from 2023 to 2025, Yipin Nutrition's operating income was 1.614 billion yuan, 1.762 billion yuan, and 1.864 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 9.17% and 5.75%, slowing down; in 2025, net profit was approximately 183 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.1%; the gross profit margin in the same period increased by 0.8 percentage points to 50.7%. In terms of products, infant formula goat milk powder is the main source of revenue, with revenue in the past three years reaching 926 million yuan, 1.033 billion yuan, and 1.009 billion yuan, accounting for from 57.4% to 54.2%. The revenue of FSMP increased from 130 million yuan to 339 million yuan, with the proportion increasing from 8.1% to 18.2%, becoming the main growth engine. In addition, infant formula milk powder continued to shrink, OEM and dairy raw materials fluctuated slightly, and adult and children's milk powder remained stable, with a clear trend towards high-margin and high-growth sectors. Looking at the profit side, the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 was 168 million yuan, 172 million yuan, and 183 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.6% and 6.1%, mainly affected by expenses, non-recurring gains and losses, and fluctuations in the fair value of biological assets. Among the three expenses, sales and distribution expenses continued to rise, reaching 507 million yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17.4%, mainly due to the increase in cross-border e-commerce FSMP business platform service fees; management expenses slightly increased, while financial expenses decreased. The cost structure reflects the company's increasing market investment to support FSMP expansion. In terms of profitability, the company's overall gross profit margin remained high, reaching 49.9%, 49.9%, and 50.7% from 2023 to 2025, stabilizing at around 50% for three consecutive years, mainly due to the optimization of product structure and the increase in the proportion of high-margin businesses. However, there is a significant difference in gross profit margins between the company's product segments. The gross profit margin of FSMP exceeded 74% in all three years, reaching 74.7% in 2025; Meanwhile, the gross profit margin of infant formula goat milk powder steadily increased from 57.4% to 59.1%; The gross profit margin of infant formula cow milk powder slightly decreased to 44.7%, and the gross profit margin of adult and children's milk powder decreased from 26.3% in 2023 to 18.4% in 2025; The gross profit margin of OEM and dairy raw materials dropped significantly, from 25.6% to 6.7%. Therefore, the contraction of low-margin businesses and the expansion of high-margin businesses will be key factors in improving the company's profit quality. It is worth noting that as a dairy-related company sensitive to fluctuations in raw milk prices, the company's business is affected by the fair value of biological assets, with losses of 33.549 million yuan, 62.522 million yuan, and 28.567 million yuan in 2023-2025 respectively, directly affecting the profit side, and greatly influenced by the price of raw milk and the inventory, adding some instability to the company's performance. Opening up a new FSMP track, opportunities and challenges coexist At this moment, both goat milk powder and FSMP are in a period of increasing penetration. Data shows that the prevalence of allergies in infants aged 0-24 months in China is 12.3%, but the market penetration rate of infant formula goat milk powder is only 6.3%, indicating that the demand for low-allergy products has not been fully met. The FSMP market benefits from clinical demand and policy standardization. The market size is expected to increase from 230 billion yuan in 2024 to 530 billion yuan in 2029, with a compound growth rate of 18.2%. The compound growth rate of infant FSMP is 15.9%, much higher than the overall level of the milk powder industry, which explains why Yipin Nutrition is focusing on the FSMP track. As of now, FSMP has become the second growth curve of the company, with an annual compound growth rate of over 60% in the past three years, covering scenarios such as lactose intolerance, cow milk protein allergies, premature low birth weight, etc. By leveraging the maternal and child channel for rapid volume growth, FSMP forms a low-allergen product matrix with the main product goat milk powder, which is the core competitiveness that sets the company apart from traditional dairy companies. However, as the popularity of goat milk powder and FSMP tracks increases, leading dairy companies are also targeting the low-allergy, high-protein, and other specific tracks, accelerating their layout. This intensifies market competition and leads to homogenization of products in the market. Although the company leads in market share in the segmented market, there is still a gap with leading companies, and brand premiums and channel barriers need to be strengthened. By the end of 2025, the company had covered 333 prefecture-level cities, over 2,700 county-level regions, and approximately 65,000 retail stores, with more than 13,000 of them being maternal and child stores. Dealer channels contributed 67% of the total revenue in 2025, reaching 1.248 billion yuan. Direct sales revenue increased from 29.4% to 33.0%, mainly through "Weiyi Selection," Tmall, JD.com, Douyin, and WeChat mini-programs. Among them, the cross-border e-commerce platform "Weiyi Selection" contributed about seventy percent of online direct sales revenue. In addition, at the supply chain level, fluctuations in raw material prices, production interruptions at overseas bases, and disease outbreaks in biological assets may affect the company's cost and supply stability. On the other hand, the goat milk powder market is being systematically eroded by traditional dairy giants. Leading companies like Feihe and Yili have successively launched small molecular protein cow milk powder, directly competing with goat milk powder with the core selling point of "easy absorption." Traditional brands have advantages in channel penetration and brand awareness that Yipin finds it difficult to reach, and may constitute direct competition to the company's products, prompting Yipin to innovate in product categories, product quality, and channel sales to improve quality and efficiency. It may also be one of the core factors driving Yipin Nutrition's listing in Hong Kong. Overall, Yipin Nutrition is a rare target in the low-allergy nutrition field, with the potential to lead with the two major segmented tracks of "goat milk powder + FSMP," a complete industry chain layout and brand barriers. The company has a leading edge in financial performance, with a high gross profit margin, and is expected to benefit from the increasing penetration rate of the industry in the long term. However, the company also faces challenges such as slowing growth, differentiation in profit structure, and intensified competition, with short-term performance being significantly affected by non-recurring factors. The proceeds from this IPO are planned to be invested in product research and development, industry chain upgrading and intelligent manufacturing, brand building and product marketing, international expansion and digital construction, to further consolidate core competitiveness. The long-term value depends on the optimization of product structure, the volume growth of FSMP products, and the implementation of channel expansion.