Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights | Focus on Portfolio Rebalancing

Last Friday, the three major indexes fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index trading narrowly and the ChiNext Index rising over 1%, hitting a near 11-year high. Yuanjie Semiconductor Technology surpassed Maotai to become the new "Stock King" in A-shares. The Huang Bai Line showed significant differentiation, with strong performance from heavyweight stocks. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.43 trillion. Looking at sectors, concepts related to computing power industry chain, PCB, liquid-cooled servers, and computing power leasing were strong. On the downside, the tourism and hotel concepts collectively adjusted. By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.6%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.43%. At today's brokerage morning meeting, CICC believes that under the re-emergence of overseas disturbances, the short-term market may be under pressure, and attention should be paid to rebalancing; GF SEC believes in the deduction of major asset classes under two types of oil price peak forms; Zhongtai believes in positioning along two main themes when computing power inflation meets the return of foreign capital. CICC: Under the re-emergence of overseas disturbances, the short-term market may be under pressure, paying attention to rebalancing In the short term, the market may face certain disturbances. On the one hand, geopolitical competition has intensified over the weekend, with the previously announced two-week ceasefire window expiring this week, and uncertainty remains about whether it can be extended. In addition, the US Senate will hold a confirmation hearing next week for Jerome Powell, the nominee for Federal Reserve Chairman, and the Fed's policy path and independence issues will be reassessed, with the possibility of a temporary decline in global risk appetite. On the other hand, the valuation differentiation coefficient of A-shares has reached a historical high range. Past experience shows that this state usually leads to a period of additional demand expansion after a period of time, and there is a possibility of a style-based periodic rebalancing. The previously strong direction may be under pressure, and sectors that have been stagnant at low levels may achieve relatively higher returns. At the level of clustered varieties, last week, the computing power chain and leading companies in new energy saw rapid gains in the short term, with some stocks' valuations possibly already reflecting earnings expectations, leading to an increase in profit-taking pressure and the potential for reduced holdings in case of emotional disturbances. GF SEC: Deduction of major asset classes under two types of oil price peak forms Regarding equity, in both forms of oil price, the market will see rebounds, but under the high-level grinding top form, the rebound will take longer, with controlled inflation and industrial prosperity able to counter the disturbance of high oil prices; as for the US dollar index, under the grinding top of oil prices, the US dollar index oscillates towards strength, in the case of a rapid decline, the US dollar index tends to weaken, but the overall correlation is limited; gold in the context of a grinding top of oil prices has a relatively large long-term increase, and under a rapid decline, it can make up for losses; in terms of industrial metals, using copper as an example, under the grinding top form, the price of copper rises before falling, and in the later stages of rapid decline, copper prices show signs of recovery; as for energy products, for example, with LNG, under the grinding top oil price, LNG prices continue to rise, but in the case of a rapid decline, LNG prices also fall. Zhongtai: Positioning along two main themes when computing power inflation meets the return of foreign capital In the context of intensified global AI competition, the AI hardware industry chain maintains high prosperity with strong capital expenditure. Equally worth noting is domestic computing power: benefiting from exponential growth in token usage and domestic substitution, the self-controlled AI chip has become a "must" for the country. Industries that have been "wrongly killed" may experience oversold rebounds. Focus on sectors with good fundamentals but not yet significantly restored valuations, such as industrial metals, electronic components, semiconductor equipment, non-bank financials, medical devices, and so on. This article is reprinted from "Cai Lianshe", GMTEight editor: Liu Jiayin.