From lackluster delivery to AI vision: How does Deutsche Bank reevaluate the pricing of Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US)?

Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) will release its financial report next week, and Deutsche Bank Aktiengesellschaft has provided the latest analysis on the performance for this quarter, the Robotaxi business, and the Terafab project. Regarding the upcoming financial report, Deutsche Bank expects the key discussion topics to include the progress of Robotaxi deployment, the development progress of the humanoid Siasun Robot&Automation (Optimus V3), the production plan for Cybercab, and the situation related to the Terafab project and capital expenditures. Deutsche Bank has slightly reduced Tesla, Inc.'s target price from $480 to $465, reflecting minor adjustments made to valuation models and frameworks; the "buy" rating is maintained. Deutsche Bank points out that Tesla, Inc.'s first quarter delivery performance was softer than expected. The bank notes that Tesla, Inc.'s sales performance for the first quarter of 2026 primarily reflects various adverse factors expected earlier, but overall progress is still expected to meet Deutsche Bank's full-year sales forecast. Q1 deliveries were 358,023 vehicles, slightly lower than the market consensus of 365,600 vehicles. The intentional production cuts of Model S and Model X models, combined with overall weak demand for electric vehicles globally, impacted deliveries for the quarter; despite this, consumer confidence in the European market appears to be bottoming out. Furthermore, Deutsche Bank states that while the energy storage business segment is expected to continue its growth momentum, the deployment volume of energy storage products in the first quarter was only 8.8 GWh, far below the market's expectation of 14.4 GWh. This gap is likely attributed to the time variability of order deliveries ("discontinuous performance"), and it is expected that this data will show a sequential improvement in the following quarters. Overall, Deutsche Bank estimates revenue for the first quarter to be around $20.7 billion, a slight decrease from the previous quarter but achieving year-over-year growth. The bank predicts that the gross profit margin for the automotive business (excluding carbon credit revenue) is around 14.7%, a decrease from 17.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025; the main factors leading to this decrease include: a decline in sales and the company canceling the option for customers to "prepay in full" for the Full Self-Driving (FSD) system (this policy took effect on February 15th).