Guotai Haitong: The race of self-redemption worth billions welcomes the intergenerational succession, MNC accelerates to seize the next generation pipeline.

Guotai Haitong released a research report stating that the self-immunity track has produced many "blockbuster bombs" in the past, catalyzing the birth of several multinational corporations (MNCs) with market values of over a hundred billion dollars. However, the self-immunity track faces challenges such as the "patent cliff" and efficacy/compliance bottlenecks, calling for the emergence of the next generation of disruptive major drugs. MNCs have accelerated their layout of next-generation therapies. Chinese pharmaceutical companies, with their participation in MNC's self-immunity business on a global scale through significant business deals, are experiencing a golden turning point for breakthroughs and valuation reshaping. The main points of Guotai Haitong are as follows: The self-immunity track has produced many "blockbuster bombs", catalyzing the birth of several MNCs with market values of over a hundred billion dollars. Reviewing the history of AbbVie, through the volume increase and pipeline iteration of their core blockbuster products, the company achieved significant stock price growth during two golden growth periods. In the first period (2013-2018), relying on the volume increase of the "drug king" adalimumab (with peak sales of approximately $19.9 billion in 2018), the stock price rose from $19.90 to $87.44, with an IRR of 34%. In the second period (2020-2025), relying on the successful successorship and rapid volume increase of upadacitinib and rinsebrick monoclonal antibodies, the stock price rose from $50.56 to $240.69, with an IRR of 33%. Similarly, reviewing the history of Sanofi, after the launch of their blockbuster product dupilumab, global sales increased to $17.8 billion by 2025; the stock price rose from a low of $28.56 in 2018 to nearly $56.90 in 2025, with an IRR of 11%. At the current stage, standard therapies have many limitations, and technological iterations are expected to create a larger market space. Even with limitations in efficacy, compliance, and other aspects, the first generation of self-immunity blockbuster products have maintained good sales performance in the global market, giving rise to several multi-billion dollar blockbuster products and showcasing the great development potential in the self-immunity market. It is predicted that the next generation of self-immunity products will undergo comprehensive technological iterations in terms of effectiveness, safety, and compliance, helping patients establish better dosing habits, prolonging treatment duration, and further expanding the self-immunity market space. MNCs are accelerating their layout of next-generation self-immunity products, and Chinese companies have the potential to achieve breakthroughs and deeply participate in MNC's global layout in the self-immunity business. The participation of Chinese companies in significant business deals with MNCs in the self-immunity field has rapidly increased since 2024, with the potential to overtake in the next generation technology path, indicating a deep involvement in MNC's global layout in the self-immunity business. From the perspective of technological iteration paths, for T cell-mediated autoimmune diseases, in the past three years, MNCs have been focusing on areas such as cytokine dual/multi-blocking agents, long-acting and inhaled formulations, oral products, and new target exploration mainly focusing on TL1A. For B cell-mediated autoimmune diseases, MNCs have been focusing on areas such as TCE immunotherapy, cell gene therapy immunotherapy, and complement inhibitors. Chinese companies are at the forefront in areas such as cytokine dual/multi-blocking agents and TCE immunotherapy in the international arena. Investment recommendation: Maintain a "hold" rating for the industry. Major self-immunity drugs are an important cornerstone of MNC's current business; as patents expire, MNCs are accelerating their layout of the next generation of self-immunity pipelines. Chinese companies have the potential to achieve breakthroughs in the next generation self-immunity technology path and deeply participate in MNC's global layout in the self-immunity business. It is recommended to pay attention to companies like Kangnaoya (02162), Haisco Pharmaceutical Group (002653.SZ), CSPC PHARMA (01093), InventisBio (688382.SH), InnoCare Pharma (688428.SH), CMS (00867), Sunshine Guojian Pharmaceutical (688336.SH), and Plu Medical (02142), SIMCERE PHARMA (02096), INNOVENT BIO (01801), Qunxin Bio (02509), EVEREST MED (01952), AKESO (09926), Chongqing Genrix Biopharmaceutical (688443), among others. Risk warning: Risks such as unexpected delays in research and development and commercialization.