Minmetals Securities: China's industrial and energy metal mines have relatively high external dependence. In 2026, the emphasis will be on core metal varieties.

Minmetals Securities released a research report stating that in 2026, the focus should be on copper, rare earth, tungsten, antimony, and other core metal varieties with strong strategic attributes, tight supply-demand patterns, and significant influence from geopolitical environments. Copper, due to its concentrated refining process, clear gap, and inclusion in the US critical minerals list, has become a core mineral in global resource competition. Lithium, nickel, and cobalt, as key raw materials for new energy transformation, are affected by policy disruptions in major producing countries such as Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, as well as supply chain restructuring by Western allies, leading to increased supply-demand and price volatility. Rare earths, tungsten, antimony, and other strategic minor metals in China, with strengthened export controls and the construction of overseas non-Chinese mineral production systems, continue to demonstrate their strategic value. Main points of Minmetals Securities: - In 2025, global industrial metal ore production structure differentiates with various trends, and supply of major varieties is highly concentrated in top producing countries. - According to USGS data, in 2025, zinc, nickel, and bauxite ores saw year-on-year growth, with zinc ore leading the increase; copper ore production remained the same as in 2024; lead and tin ores saw a slight year-on-year decline. Global copper ore production in 2025 was 23 million tons, with supply highly concentrated in Africa and South America. Driven by downstream demand recovery, global bauxite ore production grew by 2.80% to 440 million tons, led by Guinea and Australia. Lead ore production decreased by 2.17% to 4.5 million tons, with China being the world's largest lead producer and production also declining. Zinc ore production grew by 9.24% to 13 million tons, benefiting from fewer disruptions in 2025 and concentrated release of new and resumed production capacity. Tin ore production saw a slight decline due to policy and environmental factors in major producing countries, with a production of about 290,000 tons. Global nickel ore production was 3.9 million tons, an increase of 5.12% year-on-year. - China's industrial and energy metal ore reliance on foreign sources is high, and the resource-to-reserve ratio for copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc is below the global average. - Although China plays an important role in basic metal production, there are still significant challenges in terms of resource continuity. The resource-to-reserve ratios for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and tin in China are significantly lower than the global average. For example, the global static resource-to-reserve ratio for copper ore is about 42.61 years, while in China it is 22.78 years, and for bauxite, the global static resource-to-reserve ratio is about 65.91 years, compared to only 8.16 years in China. The reliance on foreign sources is also high, with China's reliance on copper, nickel, lithium, and aluminum ores exceeding 70%, at 78.79%, 84.89%, 72.53%, and 72.41% respectively, indicating a high dependence on imports. The reliance on foreign sources for tin, zinc, and lead ores is 44.38%, 39.86%, and 34.17% respectively, also placing them in the high range. The mismatch between domestic resource reserves and the scale of development and the rigid consumption demand poses certain pressures on the stable operation of the industry and supply chains. - Global strategic mineral resource competition continues to escalate, with supply chain camps accelerating differentiation. - Influenced by energy transition and major power competition, critical minerals have become core strategic resources, shifting supply chain logic towards prioritizing security and self-controllability. In November 2025, the US expanded its list of critical minerals to 60, with 13 of them having a net import dependency of 100%, highly relying on China for rare earths, antimony, and other minerals. The US has expanded the list, launched the "Strategic Minerals Reserve" plan, and formed a mineral security partnership with allied countries to build a non-Chinese mineral supply chain system. Faced with external pressures, China has taken multiple measures to ensure resource security, implementing export controls on advantage minerals such as tungsten and rare earths, promoting exploration and development of scarce minerals such as copper and lithium, and enhancing cooperation with multiple countries to build a domestically secure, globally positioned, and precisely controlled resource security system to actively address the challenges brought by supply chain restructuring. Risk warnings: 1. Risk of data adjustments by USGS; 2. Geopolitical risks; 3. Risks of policy adjustments by various countries and regions.