HAITONG INT'L: Zimbabwe lifts ban on lithium concentrate exports, quota system to temporarily ease supply constraints.

HAITONG INT'L released a research report stating that the Zimbabwean government recently made significant adjustments to its lithium mining export policy, granting export quotas to six large lithium concentrate producers including Sinomine Resource Group and Chengxin Lithium Group, while also "softening" the export ban implemented in February of this year. The six enterprises that received quotas are all large and heavily invested, deeply involved in local industrialization goals. It can be foreseen that the industry concentration will continue to increase in the future, with small and medium traders and entities without processing commitments being further pushed out, and the bargaining power of leading entities will be further enhanced. Key points from HAITONG INT'L: The Zimbabwean government recently made significant adjustments to its lithium mining export policy, granting export quotas to six large lithium concentrate producers and "softening" the export ban implemented in February of this year. The approved six enterprises include Sinomine Resource Group, Chengxin Lithium Group, Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, Qingshan Group, and mining companies under the Mutapa Investment Fund. This policy adjustment provides certainty for the operations of these enterprises. The core of this policy adjustment lies in the quota system. Minister of Mines Polite Kambamura clearly stated that the government has established 11 strict conditions for lithium producers, preventing companies from freely deciding on export quantities and batches. More importantly, the government will completely open the export time limit on January 1, 2027, provided that these companies must have completed lithium salt processing facilities in Zimbabwe. From the policy terms, the 11 conditions in this system include: enterprises must commit in writing to build lithium sulfate plants before January 1, 2027, mandatory disclosure of annual financial statements starting from December 2025, fully meeting labor, safety, and environmental requirements, establishing a mining assay lab within three months, and reporting progress to a ministerial committee monthly; at the same time, the 10% export tax rate on lithium concentrate will be retained until the 2027 deadline arrives. This means that Zimbabwe aims to tighten its management of lithium resource exports. For enterprises, future competitiveness will no longer be just about resource reserves and extraction capabilities, but also about compliance abilities, capital expenditure realization capabilities, and local processing capabilities. In terms of the impact on the industry chain, Zimbabwe is the second largest source of lithium concentrate imports for China, with China importing approximately 1.2 million tons of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe in 2025, accounting for around 15% of China's total lithium concentrate imports. The six enterprises that received quotas are all large, heavily invested, and deeply involved in local industrialization goals. It can be foreseen that the industry concentration will continue to increase, pushing out small and medium traders and entities without processing commitments, and enhancing the bargaining power of leading entities. According to previous estimates, global demand for lithium carbonate is expected to reach 2-2.1 million tons in 2026. If Zimbabwe's restoration of lithium concentrate exports in the form of quotas lands soon, the total supply affected during the comprehensive ban implementation period will be around 30,000 tons, maintaining a tight balance between supply and demand for lithium carbonate. Investment advice: With the implementation of the quota system in Zimbabwe, pay attention to Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH), Sinomine Resource Group (002738.SZ), Chengxin Lithium Group (002240.SZ), Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A. Sponsored ADR Pfd Series B (SQM.US), Albemarle Corporation (ALB.US), and Ganfeng Lithium Group (002460.SZ). Among them, Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt, Sinomine Resource Group, and Chengxin Lithium Group directly benefit from the restoration of the Zimbabwean export channel, as the quota system will alleviate inventory pressure and cash flow risks, ensuring normal shipment of lithium concentrate and progress in local smelting investments; SQM, ALB, and Ganfeng Lithium Group, as global leaders in lithium resources, indirectly benefit from the optimization of the supply pattern - with limited actual increments under Zimbabwean policy constraints, it is difficult to reverse the tight global supply and demand balance, and the lithium price is expected to remain high, favoring leading enterprises with high resource self-sufficiency rates and favorable cost curve positions. Risk factors: Policy fluctuations and execution uncertainties; risks associated with meeting the 2027 deadline; logistical and shipping risks, etc.