The US and Iran consider extending ceasefire! Pakistan increases mediation efforts, global stock markets rise optimistically.

With less than a week left until the expiration of the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, a diplomatic mediation that touches on the global energy lifeline and financial market trends is underway. Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff Munir arrived in Tehran on Wednesday, attempting to bridge the deep divisions between Washington and Tehran at the last minute. Meanwhile, global stock markets are expected to rise for the tenth consecutive trading day amidst ceasefire expectations, reaching historic highs - cracks between market optimism and geopolitical reality are quietly widening. Diplomatic mediation April 22, 2026, marks the deadline of the two-week temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. According to a source, the US and Iran are considering extending the ceasefire deadline by two weeks, but both sides officially deny reaching an agreement on this. Another source familiar with the situation stated that neither side wants to restart the war, as the war has severely damaged Iran's infrastructure and led to soaring energy prices, including in the US. Iran has explicitly stated that it has "not agreed" to the US's request for an extension and has requested the US to first fulfill its promises in the current ceasefire agreement. White House press secretary Caroline Levitt told reporters on Wednesday that the White House has not yet "formally requested an extension of the ceasefire," but acknowledged that "we are still actively engaged in these negotiations," emphasizing that Pakistan is the only official mediator. Pakistan's efforts in mediation are significantly intensifying. In addition to Chief of Army Staff Munir's visit to Tehran, Pakistani Prime Minister Shabaz Sharif has embarked on separate visits to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey this week, seeking support from Gulf countries in advancing negotiations. However, the first round of face-to-face talks between the US and Iran, held in Islamabad last weekend and lasting 21 hours, ended in failure. The two sides have yet to make progress on three core issues: Iran's nuclear program, navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, and war reparations. Escalating risk of strait blockade and countermeasures Among all negotiation issues, the Strait of Hormuz navigation issue is the most urgent focus. Since the joint US-Israel military strike on Iran on February 28, the gateway that carries about one-fifth of global seaborne oil trade has been almost completely paralyzed. Data shows that before the war, the strait saw an average of 138 ships passing through daily, transporting about 20 million barrels of oil. Now, the average has dropped to less than 10 ships per day. On Monday, the Trump administration announced a comprehensive maritime blockade of Iranian ports. US Central Command claimed that there were "no ships that successfully passed through the US military line" within 48 hours after the blockade began. Iran has responded with equal force. According to reports quoting unnamed officials, the US will send thousands of additional troops to the Middle East in the coming days to pressure Tehran to reach an agreement. These reinforcements include about 6,000 soldiers deployed in the USS George H.W. Bush aircraft carrier and its strike group. Iran's Joint Military Command commander Ali Abdul Rahi stated that Iran believes the US's extension of the blockade is a "precursor to breaking the ceasefire agreement" and warned that if the blockade continues, Iranian armed forces "will not allow any incoming or outgoing activities in the Persian Gulf, Sea of Oman, and Red Sea" to continue. Analysts point out the risk of rapid escalation in this "blockade and counter-blockade" game. Although some Iranian ships are still reportedly attempting to break the blockade, indicating that the blockade is not foolproof, the opposing stances of both sides are compressing diplomatic maneuvering space. Peripheral pressure of Lebanon conflict On the sidelines of US-Iran negotiations, the military conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon continues, adding new uncertainties to the peace process. Despite Israel and the US halting direct attacks on Iran, its military continues to expand operations in southern Lebanon. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stated that he has instructed the army that invaded Lebanon last month to expand the buffer zone established within Lebanese territory. Meanwhile, Israel and the Lebanese government, which has little influence over Hezbollah, held indirect talks in Washington on Tuesday. Trump stated on social media that Israeli and Lebanese leaders would meet later this week and said, "The two leaders have not spoken for a long time, probably about 34 years." According to Lebanese authorities, the conflict has resulted in over 2,000 deaths and the displacement of 1 million people. A senior US official stated that the Lebanon talks are separate from US-Iran negotiations. However, sources reveal that achieving a ceasefire in Lebanon would be a positive signal for Iran's participation in the next round of US-Iran negotiations. Iran sees Hezbollah as a crucial regional ally, and the outcome of the Lebanon conflict may indirectly affect Tehran's position and leverage in nuclear negotiations. Cracks between market optimism and reality In stark contrast to the tense geopolitical situation, global financial markets have experienced an unusual "buying frenzy" in the past week. The MSCI Global All Country Index rose to a historic high on Thursday, surging 0.3% for the tenth consecutive trading day, setting a record for the longest continuous rise since September last year and fully recovering from the previous 9% slump since the outbreak of the war. Asian stocks rose 1.3%, nearly erasing all losses caused by the war. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell for the ninth consecutive trading day, marking the longest continuous decline since 2006, indicating a significant shift of funds from safe-haven assets to risky assets. Brent crude oil prices stabilized around $95 per barrel, well below the peak near $120 last month. The market is betting on an optimistic scenario: the US and Iran will reach a peaceful agreement, the Strait of Hormuz will reopen, and global energy supplies will return to normal. However, several analysts warn that the market's optimistic pricing may underestimate multiple risks in reality. Trump's statements have been inconsistent, and the reasons for the latest US and Israeli bombings remain questionable - with the primary concern being Iran's nuclear program. Since the US and Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities in June last year, the whereabouts of Iran's uranium remain unknown, and International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors continue to be barred from entering Iran. Iran has stated that it is not pursuing a nuclear weapons program. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Ismail Baghaei stated on Wednesday that Iran's right to peaceful use of nuclear energy "cannot be deprived." However, he added that the concentration and type of enriched uranium "can be negotiated." Even if the ceasefire is achieved, the return to normal supply of major commodities is far from ideal. Firstly, the recovery of energy supply is not immediate. The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that even if the strait is reopened immediately, it will take 60 to 150 days to restore normal oil transport operations. Goldman Sachs stated in a recent report that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for another month, the annual average price of Brent crude oil could exceed $100 per barrel; if the closure lasts longer, the third-quarter average price could rise to $120 per barrel. Secondly, the second-round effects of price shocks are emerging. The Strait of Hormuz is not just an oil channel, but a crucial node for global fertilizer trade - about 30% of urea and 20% to 30% of ammonia exports pass through the strait. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has issued a warning: if ships carrying fertilizers and energy inputs cannot resume transportation soon, there is a risk of crop reduction and a sharp rise in food prices next year. Qatar's finance minister bluntly stated at the IMF Spring Meeting that the current rise in energy prices is just the "tip of the iceberg," with the "full impact [to] be visible in a month or two," bringing significant economic shocks. The IMF has previously issued its sternest warning: if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, it could trigger a global economic recession.