BofA Securities: Lower JIANGXI COPPER (00358) target price to HK$52, reaffirm "buy" rating.

Bank of America Securities released a research report stating that in order to reflect the performance and latest production guidance of JIANGXI COPPER (00358) this year, the net profit forecast for the fiscal years 2026 and 2027 has been lowered by 14% and 21% to RMB 10.5 billion and 11.4 billion respectively. The bank has also lowered the target price of Jiangxi Copper's Hong Kong-listed shares from HK$56 to HK$52, and the target price of its A shares (600362.SH) from RMB 68 to RMB 63, while reiterating a "buy" rating. This is mainly due to the strong sulfuric acid prices, resilient copper prices, increased investment income from Jiaxin International (03858), and long-term growth in copper concentrate production driven by SolGold and other potential acquisitions. Although spot refining and refining charges (TC/RC) have fallen to a historical low of negative $78 per ton, Jiangxi Copper's management expects limited impact as most smelting capacity is based on long-term contracts set at "0", in addition to strong sulfuric acid prices. The bank expects Jiangxi Copper to perform well in the first half of 2026, with the global team forecasting copper prices of $13,187 per ton for 2026 and $15,500 per ton for 2027, representing year-on-year increases of 32% and 18% respectively. If there is a supply interruption due to African smelters having sulfuric acid inventory for only about a month, there is potential for copper prices to increase. Management also reiterated its focus on market value management, as authorities tighten control over new smelting capacity, although there is no news of government-mandated production cuts.