Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley sing in unison: Iran's war can't stop the market from warming up, Wall Street is eagerly waiting for SpaceX and AI unicorn to start the IPO super cycle.

Notice that some of the largest banks on Wall Street saw a strong start to the year 2026, despite the Iran war suppressing IPO activities, equity capital markets (ECM) revenues still achieved strong growth. Data shows that Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.(GS.US) and J.P. Morgan (JPM.US) ranked at the top in terms of revenue from lead IPOs and stock sales in the first quarter, with $535 million and $472 million respectively. Compared to the same period in 2025, all five major banks saw double-digit percentage growth. The surge in underwriting fees was driven by overall healthy trading activities in the first quarter, despite severe market volatility and soaring volatility due to the war between the US and Iran during this period. Even though the US IPO market slowed down (with trading volume dropping to the lowest level in nearly a year in March), bank executives still predict a rebound is imminent. Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. CEO David Solomon said in a bank earnings conference call, "No doubt, the IPO activity was slowed down due to the conflict in the Middle East, especially in March." "Ultimately, the stock market has shown strong resilience, and if this resilience continues, I believe you will see IPO activity accelerate again." As the US equity capital market activity grows, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. surpasses its competitors. Convertible bonds dominated the US equity capital market trading this quarter, with Oracle Corporation issuing $5 billion in mandatory convertible bonds, and Nebius Group NV raising $4.3 billion through a single issuance. Last year's largest IPO, the $7.2 billion debut of medical supplies giant Medline Inc., led to the largest stock sell-off in the US in the first three months of 2026, with some private equity backers of the medical company selling $3.5 billion worth of stocks. Additionally, Western Digital Corporation's stake sale of its former subsidiary SanDisk raised $3.2 billion. In contrast, the IPO market is more scrutinized due to setbacks, including LiftOff Mobile Inc. and Clear Street Group Inc., both of which postponed their listings in February due to the escalation of the Middle East war. However, given that SpaceX plans to conduct what could be the largest IPO ever this year, and with Anthropic and OpenAI also planning IPOs worth billions of dollars, it is not difficult to foresee major banks settling massive commissions by the end of the year. Executives expressed optimism as more and more companies prepare to go public besides these three companies. Morgan Stanley CEO Ted Pick believes that if the market can regain its momentum entering 2026, the pipeline for IPOs and mergers will become active again, and noted a strong desire from private equity firms to cash out their investment portfolios. Pick said, "I do believe that not every company will be successful in IPO in the current environment." "The market will be selective. What we're seeing is that the largest asset management companies and the largest private equity firmssome of whom own very high-quality companieswill likely be the first to act." Citigroup (C.US) leads its peers in revenue growth from stock underwriting, with a 64% increase in the first quarter compared to the same period last year. CFO Gonzalo Luchetti said in an earnings conference call that the growth in additional issuances and convertible bond activities contributed to this increase. The US stock market and related sales rebound. Currently, the Cboe Global Markets Inc's volatility index (VIX) hovers around 17, while the single-month implied volatility of the S&P 500 index has fallen to pre-war levels. With traders pushing up stock prices in a optimistic mood due to the US-Iran ceasefire, the US benchmark index is poised to reach its first closing record high since January.