Trump's tariff big stick falls flat: billions of "illegal tariffs" will be refunded, and the US government will start loosening the floodgates next week.

A huge refund in the history of American trade is about to begin. The Trump administration has confirmed that it will officially start the process of refunding illegally collected tariffs next Monday (April 20). The amount of funds, deemed unconstitutional by the Supreme Court of the United States, is as high as $127 billion, including interest payments. For the secondary market, this is not just the end of a legal case, but also a "targeted liquidity injection" that will affect thousands of companies. "CAPE System" online: from individual applications to "one-click withdrawal of funds" According to court documents, the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has developed an integrated processing system called CAPE. This means that more than 56,000 registered importers will receive electronic payments, including interest, without having to go through complex procedures. Market analysis points out that this "automatic refund" model will significantly accelerate the flow of funds to the balance sheets of businesses. It is estimated that the first phase will cover 76.5% of the total amount of illegal tariffs (about $166 billion). Who are the winners? 3,000 lawsuit companies cover multiple sectors Although the leading litigation case Atmus Filtration withdrew its lawsuit due to low profile, the replacement Euro-notions Florida quickly took its place. Currently, more than 3,000 companies have filed lawsuits, covering multiple sectors such as retail, automotive components, and consumer electronics. Manufacturing and industry: For industrial filtration and component manufacturers that were previously active on the list, the refund amount (such as the $11 million involved in Atmus) may directly account for a significant portion of their quarterly profits. Retail giants: Retailers who have long borne the cost of imports are expected to hedge inflationary pressures and improve profit margins through this "windfall". Logistics service providers: With gradual benefits to 330,000 importers, cross-border trade activity is expected to rebound in the second quarter. The injection of $127 billion into the economy is essentially a "retrospective tax cut" for American companies. In the current high interest rate environment, the interest-bearing refund will directly improve the cash flow of relevant companies. Some companies may even use this fund for stock buybacks or dividends, providing direct support to stock prices. Legal battles still have a "small tail" While the floodgates are about to open, U.S. International Trade Court Judge Richard Eaton has set a new 60-day appeal window. Brandon Lord, CBP's Director of Trade Programs, also reminded that about $2.9 billion worth of complicated records still need to be handled manually. Investors should pay attention to the progress report submitted by the government on April 28 to confirm the specific pace of the first batch of funds being received.