UBS: Energy prices are expected to stay high for a longer period of time, with oil prices possibly reaching $130 per barrel.

UBS releases a research report stating that the recent volatility in the Chinese stock market is due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In the past month, the correlation between the Chinese stock market and the MSCI AC World Index has increased from a historical average of 0.6 to around 0.8. The bank believes that even if the strait can reopen, energy prices may remain high for a longer period. The bank is close to predicting a bearish scenario, assuming the disruption continues until the end of April, with oil prices potentially reaching $130 per barrel and the S&P 500 index falling by 10% to 12%. UBS has downgraded the consumer and property sectors to "underweight" due to the expectation that rising inflation will limit further interest rate cuts. It also points out that if oil prices remain high, PetroChina producers will benefit. The bank estimates that the current stock price of PetroChina reflects an oil price of $65 per barrel, much lower than their forecast of $90 to $100 per barrel.