Goldman Sachs Enters First-Quarter Earnings Season With High Expectations and a More Complicated Macro Backdrop

Ahead of the release, analyst estimates were broadly clustered around earnings per share in the mid-$16 range and revenue near $17 billion. That is a demanding starting point, especially for a stock already trading above $900 before the announcement. The setup suggests investors are not merely hoping for a beat; they are looking for evidence that Goldman’s capital-markets franchise can keep compounding from an already strong 2025 base.

The optimism is not arbitrary. Goldman’s 2025 annual report showed net revenues rising 9% to $58.3 billion, earnings per share climbing 27% to $51.32, and return on equity improving to 15.0%. The firm also finished 2025 at the top of the global M&A league tables, advising on $1.48 trillion of announced deals and leading the market in M&A fee revenue. That combination of stronger profitability and renewed strategic activity gave investors a reason to believe Goldman entered 2026 with real momentum rather than just a temporary trading spike.

The broader industry backdrop has also been supportive. Reuters reported that large U.S. banks were expected to post higher first-quarter profits on the back of stronger interest income, elevated investment-banking fees, and active trading desks, while separate deal data showed global first-quarter M&A volume exceeded $1.2 trillion. Meanwhile, draft U.S. capital rules introduced by regulators could eventually reduce capital requirements enough to free up substantial balance-sheet capacity, with Goldman identified as one of the large banks that could benefit meaningfully from a lower systemic surcharge.

Still, the real test is likely to be guidance, not the quarter that just ended. Investors are watching whether the Iran conflict, volatile energy prices, and stress around private-credit exposures begin to change how Goldman sees underwriting risk, financing conditions, and client appetite for deals in the months ahead. That is why this report matters beyond Goldman itself: if management sounds resilient, it can reinforce the idea that Wall Street’s earnings engine is still intact; if management sounds cautious, the market may decide that even strong first-quarter numbers are already old news.