Citigroup: Lowered the target price of LUYE PHARMA (02186) to 4.3 Hong Kong dollars. The impact of declining prices of mature products is heavier than expected.
Management expects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 25% in net profit from 2026 to 2030, indicating significant improvement in profitability. This will be mainly driven by the accelerated sales growth of their product Erozfi in the United States, with sales expected to double to $40 million in 2026 and achieve break-even. Additionally, continued growth is expected from new products in China.
Citigroup released a research report stating that the price reduction of mature products of LUYE PHARMA (02186) is heavier than expected, so it has lowered its revenue and net profit forecasts for the next two years. The management has guided that the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of net profit from 2026 to 2030 will exceed 25%, which means that profitability will significantly improve, mainly benefiting from the accelerated growth of its product Erozfi in the United States, with sales expected to double to $40 million in 2026 and break even; and continuous growth of new products in China. Based on the discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation method, the group's target price has been lowered from HK$5 to HK$4.3 and reiterated a "buy" rating.
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