New Stock Preview | Fighting the Cold Winter of the Dairy Industry with "Freshness": How promising is New Hope Liuhe's listing in Hong Kong?

In the spring of 2026, for New Hope Liuhe Dairy, it is destined to be a season full of ambition and challenges. After listing on the A-shares market in 2019, this regional dairy giant with low-temperature fresh milk as its core barrier, once again set its sights on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. As a leading player in the "second tier of dairy enterprises," New Hope Liuhe Dairy officially submitted its listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on April 2, with the potential to become the first domestic dairy enterprise to be listed on both the A-share and H-share markets. Amidst the industry's overall slowdown in growth, fluctuations in raw milk prices, and the financial pressure brought about by mergers and acquisitions, what are the odds of success for New Hope Liuhe Dairy's listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this time? From "Regional Integrator" to "Fresh Cube" Drive It is understood that New Hope Liuhe Dairy is not a traditional dairy enterprise, but a precise "technology nutrition food company." Upholding the mission of "fresh, making life better," the company, with the "Fresh Cube strategy" at its core, is dedicated to transforming low-temperature dairy products from traditional nutritional intake tools into high-frequency health consumer products with segmented functions that cover multiple scenarios through the use of biotechnology and digital technology. Against the backdrop of the industry's overall growth slowdown, New Hope Liuhe Dairy has shown strong resilience by converting the core asset of "freshness" into tangible profitability through the dual drive of biotechnology and digital technology. In terms of product ecology, New Hope Liuhe Dairy has built a highly competitive "fresh value" matrix, with over 20 major dairy product brands, relying on high-end products such as "24-hour fresh cow's milk," "Morning Sun Boutique," as well as functional yogurts like "Active Run" and "Original," forming a three-dimensional layout of "national flagship products + regional specialty brands." Supporting this vast product empire is its integrated supply chain from the pasture to the table and distributed production capacity layout. Through 12 self-owned pastures and an extensive network of cooperative pastures, New Hope Liuhe Dairy ensures a stable supply of high-quality milk sources. More importantly, with its 17 dairy processing plants deployed nationwide, the company strictly controls the transportation radius of local pastures to around 150 kilometers, a production model that is "close to consumer areas." This greatly shortens the processing and time to market, effectively preserving the active nutrients in milk and constructing a supply chain moat that is difficult for low-temperature dairy enterprises to replicate. By seizing the trends in consumption and driving differentiation through innovation, New Hope Liuhe Dairy has successfully captured the expanding opportunities in the Chinese low-temperature liquid dairy products market. From 2023 to 2025, the company achieved a compound annual growth rate of 10.8% in revenue from low-temperature dairy products, far exceeding the industry average. According to a Frost & Sullivan report, based on retail sales value in 2025, New Hope Liuhe Dairy ranked fifth in the Chinese liquid dairy products market and fifth in the Chinese low-temperature liquid dairy products market. It is worth noting that among the top five dairy enterprises in China, its growth rate in retail sales value of low-temperature liquid dairy products in 2024 to 2025 ranked first. Revenue at a new high amid cost challenges From a financial performance perspective, New Hope Liuhe Dairy presents a growth picture of achieving high-quality development through strategic focus during an industry adjustment period. As a leading player in China's "second tier" dairy industry, its core strength lies in accurately seizing the structural growth opportunity of low-temperature dairy products. During the reporting period, the company's operating income was 10.987 billion yuan, 10.665 billion yuan, and 11.233 billion yuan respectively. After a brief adjustment in 2024, it rebounded in 2025 to set a new high. Even more remarkable is the continuous optimization of its profitability. During the same period, net profits reached 438 million yuan, 549 million yuan, and 754 million yuan respectively, showing a strong trend of annual incremental growth. Behind this profit growth is the direct embodiment of the company's product structure upgrades and operational efficiency improvements, reflected in the gross profit margin steadily rising from 26.9% in 2023 to 28.4% in 2024, and ultimately reaching 29.2% in 2025. The company's growth has a clear product engine. According to product categories, its core components include liquid dairy products, milk powder products, and other businesses. Among them, liquid dairy products are the absolute mainstay, accounting for a high proportion of 93.4% in 2025, and low-temperature products are the growth core within it, with the revenue ratio increasing significantly from 44.8% in 2023 to 53.8% in 2025, surpassing regular temperature products for the first time to become the company's largest source of income. This directly confirms the success of high-end brands such as "24-hour fresh cow's milk," "Morning Sun Boutique," and "Active Run" - they not only helped the company capture the top share of low-temperature fresh milk and low-temperature yogurt in the southwestern regional market but also drove the overall upgrade of the company's structure. However, beneath the surface of revenue and net profit growth, the quality of growth and profitability is facing multiple tests. Although both revenue and net profit achieved year-on-year growth in 2025, the revenue proportion from "other businesses" dropped significantly from 10.5% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2025, indicating that the company is gradually divesting from non-core business and further strengthening its competitive advantage in the low-temperature dairy product sector. Although this focus on high-margin low-temperature products helps address the challenges of industry growth slowdown, it also brings new cost pressures. As the strategy deepens, the investment required for brand building and market expansion increases significantly, directly raising sales expenses. In 2025, the company's sales expenses reached as high as 1.809 billion yuan, an increase of 150 million yuan from the previous year, which to some extent eroded the profit margins and placed higher demands on the company's operational capabilities. Betting on the "Fresh" Track in the Red Ocean Driven by the dual forces of consumption upgrades and the popularization of cold chain technology, China's dairy industry is undergoing a profound structural transformation, with the low-temperature track, especially low-temperature fresh milk, becoming the core engine leading industry growth. Although the overall liquid dairy market has shown a slight decline in the short term due to supply and demand adjustments, regular temperature milk is gradually shrinking due to a decrease in consumption frequency, low-temperature fresh milk is breaking through against the tide with its differentiation value of "freshness and nutrition." From 2021 to 2025, the market size of low-temperature fresh milk rapidly expanded from 28.8 billion yuan to 40.2 billion yuan at a compound annual growth rate of 8.7%, far exceeding the industry average. Looking ahead, this high growth trend is expected to continue, with the market size of low-temperature fresh milk projected to reach 61.7 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of up to 8.9% from 2025 to 2030, and its market share in the liquid dairy market will continue to rise. Behind this trend is the concrete manifestation of consumer pursuit of high-quality living as well as the inevitable result of dairy enterprises transitioning from "safety" to "freshness." With the improvement of cold chain logistics networks, low-temperature fresh milk has overcome the limitations of geographical radius, making promises of "same-day delivery" and "24-hour freshness" possible, thereby promoting the high-end and functional upgrade of products. The explosive growth of low-temperature fresh milk not only reshapes the competition landscape of the liquid dairy market but also provides a key growth point for dairy enterprises to traverse industry cycles, marking the formal entry of China's dairy industry into the quality era where "freshness" reigns. Some analysts point out that while the demand in the dairy market remains stable and growing, the industry has transitioned from pursuing "volume growth" to a new stage of "quality enhancement" that is oriented towards diversification and refinement of demand, where "structural growth" is gradually replacing "universal growth." This transformation presents both opportunities and challenges for New Hope Liuhe Dairy. On the one hand, the continuous high costs of upstream feed, energy, and rigid investments in scaled pastoral operations are pressuring the entire industry chain model to maintain quality while bearing a heavy burden of assets. On the other hand, market competition has intensified across all price ranges and channels: in the basic regular temperature milk market, price wars are still commonly used means to clear inventory and compete for market share; while in high-growth, high-margin tracks such as low-temperature fresh milk and high-end yogurt, competition is more multifaceted - national giants are accelerating their penetration with brand and channel advantages, while regional dairy enterprises rely on the efficiency of "production and sales in the same region" in their supply chain and the loyalty of local customer base to hold their ground. In addition, cross-border competitors in boutique coffee, new tea drinks, and other industries are constantly diverting consumer spending and attention from beverages. Against this backdrop, for New Hope Liuhe Dairy to achieve sustainable growth, the story of simply relying on "high-end" or "product innovation" is no longer sufficient. The market's questions are becoming more direct: Is the premium pricing power and user stickiness of high-end products derived from brand value or marketing investment? Can the refined supply chain and channel operations offset cost pressures and truly an enhancement of profitability quality? For New Hope Liuhe Dairy, the impact on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange this time is not so much for a capital feast, but rather a strong stimulus sought in the industry's cold winter to break through with "freshness." In the face of weak growth in regular temperature milk, the squeeze from industry giants, and the diversion of cross-border competition, the "Fresh Cube" strategy that the company is betting on has shown initial results. However, how to transform the product strength of high-end products into brand premiums, rather than relying solely on high marketing investments, is still a pressing question ahead. The construction of the "A+H" dual platforms can certainly alleviate financial pressures, but the real test has just begun. In the red ocean of the low-temperature track, can New Hope Liuhe Dairy digest costs through refined operations and turn "freshness" from a slogan into a real daily habit for consumers? This not only affects the success of its listing on the Hong Kong stock market but also determines whether this company can retain the unique value of "freshness" in the competitive landscape of the dairy industry dominated by giants.