Pointing the sword at Iran's money bag! The US "close proximity blockade" forces Iran to make concessions. Experts say Trump's "three big bargaining chips" have revealed two moves.

On local Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump announced in a high-profile manner the "blockade" of Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf. After declaring his intent on social media, he announced the start of the blockade when the deadline arrived. But what does the blockade of the oil export channel through the Strait of Hormuz in that region mean? What does Trump aim to achieve? A former U.S. Department of Defense official from the Biden era stated that the U.S. is attempting to reverse the situation with Iran. During the U.S.-Iran war, Iran had blocked the strait for several weeks causing traffic congestion, disrupting global markets, and impacting the economy. Experts suggest that the blockade aims to persuade Iranian leaders to compromise and accept the U.S.'s demands to end the war and restore freedom of navigation through the strait. Michael Horowitz, a senior researcher at the Council on Foreign Relations and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense, stated, "The U.S. government appears to be pursuing what's known as a close-in blockade, attempting to prevent ships from entering or leaving these ports. The theoretical basis for implementing a close-in blockade of Iranian ports is to prevent Iran from benefiting economically from oil sales while restricting other countries' oil trade through the strait." Trump announced the blockade of the strait last Sunday, escalating tensions after a two-week ceasefire. Prior reports indicated that Iran planned to charge passing ships a fee. The U.S. Central Command clarified that the blockade would target all ships entering and leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas, including all ports in Iran on the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. Notably, ports of other Middle Eastern countries such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia also pass through the strait but are not included in the blockade. Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps Colonel and senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggested that the U.S. may enforce the blockade similarly to how they imposed a blockade on Venezuela last year by seizing several ships. He stated, "When the first boarding action occurs, we'll learn more because that will tell us where they're boarding, how they're boarding, and what happens once they're onboard." He noted that the U.S. is more likely to intercept ships in the Arabian Sea east of the Strait of Hormuz, rather than directly in the strait or the Persian Gulf, where Iran has more intervention capabilities. However, Cancian also pointed out that the U.S. could still seize ships in those regions if willing. Boarding inspections are likely to be carried out by helicopters landing on oil tankers or through the ships themselves. Horowitz suggested that the blockade could be the U.S. government's attempt to address long-standing issues in the Strait of Hormuz as they prepare to exit the conflict with Iran. He stated, "Even if the U.S. wants to withdraw now, the success of this strategy will face obstacles if Iran starts levying tolls on ships passing through the strait. Resolving the issue of ships' freedom of movement through the strait is crucial to how the Trump administration currently views the conflict. They see this blockade as a key tool to inflict maximum damage on Iran's economy and force Iran to compromise." Iran mocks Trump on the blockade Before the blockade began, Iran displayed a provocative attitude. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the Speaker of the Iranian Parliament, mocked Trump on social media, saying, "Enjoy the current oil prices. With the so-called 'blockade', you'll soon miss the days of $4 to $5 per gallon." The post included a map indicating gas stations near the White House and their gas prices per gallon. With the U.S. military having assembled naval forces in the region for months, the U.S. is prepared for the blockade in Iranian waters. Horowitz stated, "Multiple carrier strike groups have been deployed in the region, and the U.S. Fifth Fleet has been stationed in Bahrain." He added that the U.S. also has strong submarine and satellite capabilities, allowing for effective monitoring of ship movements to intercept and prevent them from selling oil to Iran. Cancian mentioned that the blockade itself is "relatively inexpensive" and may not significantly increase the already inflated costs of the war, as long as it does not lead to a renewed public conflict between the two nations. He said, "You're not using million-dollar missiles to attack people. The costs for ships and crews are already built into the budget, and you can even make money by selling the oil, something that Trump would appreciate." The impact on oil prices remains uncertain It is unclear in the short term how the blockade will affect oil prices and freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Following the announcement of the blockade, oil prices surged and are currently hovering around $100 per barrel. Horowitz noted, "The effects of the blockade are still somewhat uncertain at the moment. It's easy to imagine that even if the blockade is effective, there may not be a significant increase in traffic through the strait in the short term, as ships are still wary of Iran's missile and fast boat capabilities initially used to pressure passage through the strait." He mentioned that Iran still possesses military capabilities to threaten ships passing through the strait, including missile depots, one-way attack drones, high-speed boats, and nimble small vessels capable of launching attacks. Trump acknowledged the threat of fast boats on Truth Social last Monday, stating that the U.S. "doesn't consider them a significant threat." Nevertheless, Trump warned that if these boats "dare to approach our blockade line, we will immediately destroy them using the same killing systems we use against drug trafficking ships at sea." The U.S. has initiated comprehensive strikes against ships allegedly transporting drugs through the Caribbean to the U.S. Iran's options for response are limited Cancian believes that Iran may opt for a "kinetic response" by deploying drones, "laying more mines in the strait," or "if pushed to the extreme, possibly blowing up oil tankers." However, he states that Iran's options for response are limited - "no navy, no air force, difficult to prevent boarding actions." Iran may resent U.S. mine-clearing operations in the Strait of Hormuz, as they believe the U.S. is doing something they dislike right under their noses. It remains unclear how the blockade will play out. Iran has stated that any naval vessels entering the waters near the Strait of Hormuz would violate the ceasefire agreement and prompt retaliatory measures. On the other hand, Horowitz stated that if the blockade fails to achieve its intended goals, the U.S. might need to take more direct military actions to prevent Iran from threatening ships passing through the strait. "To effectively end the conflict, the U.S. needs to clarify the terms of the ceasefire to Iran, and both the U.S. and Iran may need to reach some form of consensus on the conditions under which the U.S. may potentially engage in conflicts with Iran again," Horowitz explained. "If Iran perceives that the U.S. will pursue them no matter what they do, then Iranian leaders' motivation will be to continue fighting, and continue threatening the strait - making negotiations extremely challenging." Cancian pointed out that the blockade is one of Trump's "three leverage points." The second is to remove Iran's control over the strait to open up the passage. The third is the action Trump threatened earlier this month - almost accelerating bombing to strike at civilian infrastructure. "Aside from these, I'm not sure what other leverage he has."