The second largest bill in history is coming: Goldman Sachs expects CTAs to buy $45 billion in the week, has the technical bottom of the US stock market been established?

Notice that, according to Goldman Sachs data analysis, Neil Sethi of Sethi Associates pointed out that a series of technical forces are converging to form a synergy, boosting the stock market this weekand this pattern may be more lasting than initially expected. In terms of fund flows, Goldman Sachs models show that Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are set to buy around $45 billion worth of US stocks in the next week, with about $34 billion focused on the S&P 500 index. This marks the second largest estimated purchase value on record. This shift reflects a systematic change in positions, as net sellers accumulated since the beginning of the first quarter have now become net buyers. So-called Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) are actually a broad class of systematic, rule-based investment funds. They trade across asset classes (stocks, bonds, commodities, currencies, derivatives) using trend-following algorithms. They do not make subjective macroeconomic judgments, but respond to price signals: pouring into assets moving in a specific direction, and exiting when the trend reverses. This makes them a significant source of mechanical, momentum-driven fund flowsespecially when their models switch from "sell" to "buy". The resulting trading activity can be sizable and relatively predictable in the short term, which is why their positions are considered an important reference for market technical analysis. However, in this situation, the more structurally significant development may be the changes in Dealer Gamma trading. By 2025, Dealer Gamma was highly concentrated above market pricesrepeatedly suppressing rebounds, as dealers mechanically sold out in uptrends to hedge their long call option positions. Goldman Sachs points out that this created a continuous "ceiling effect" throughout the first quarter. Now, this situation has reversed. Dealer Gamma has shifted below current market levels, and dealers currently hold short Gamma above. The Gamma spread between "up 5%" and "down 5%" has reached historically high levelsindicating a historically extreme asymmetry in dealers' hedging funds' response to price fluctuations. A market decline will attract dealers to buy (as they need to rebalance their short put option hedges); while a market rise will trigger further buying (as dealers chase delta in their short call option accounts). Those mechanical fund flows that suppressed the market in the first quarter are now serving to amplify market gains. Goldman Sachs' warning"under otherwise comparable conditions"is worth noting. If a macro shock occurs that is significant enough to reprice volatility, it could quickly erode this Gamma dynamic. But if lacking such a catalyst, the structural backdrop supporting the continued rise of the stock market appears to be in the most favorable state in history based on certain metrics.