Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures slightly rose, US March CPI will be released tonight.

1. On April 10th (Friday) pre-market, the three major U.S. stock index futures rose slightly, with Dow Jones futures holding steady, S&P 500 index futures rising by 0.05%, and Nasdaq 100 index futures up by 0.13%. 2. As of the time of writing, the Germany DAX index rose by 0.95%, the UK FTSE 100 index rose by 0.34%, the France CAC40 index rose by 0.70%, and the European Stoxx 50 index rose by 0.89%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil rose by 0.16% to $98.03 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 0.14% to $95.79 per barrel. Market News The Iran war "ignites" energy prices, and the U.S. March CPI is expected to show the largest month-on-month increase in nearly four years. The U.S. government will release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March on Friday. Multiple forecasts indicate that inflation is accelerating. The military actions between the U.S. and Israel against Iran in the past month have pushed gasoline prices above $4 per gallon, reversing the previous cooling trend of inflation. Economists surveyed in the market expect a 3.4% year-on-year increase in overall CPI for March, with a 0.9% month-on-month increase, significantly faster than the 2.4% year-on-year increase in February and 0.3% month-on-month growth. If economists' predictions come true, the month-on-month increase in CPI for March will reach the highest level since June 2022. In addition to energy prices, there are concerns about food costs as about one-third of global shipping of fertilizers passes through the Hormuz Strait, which may further increase the already high food costs. Excluding volatile items such as food and energy, "core" CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, a relatively moderate increase. Will the U.S.-Iran ceasefire fail to boost market confidence? Retail investors accelerate their exit in the U.S. stock rebound, with ETF outflows hitting a new high this year. The volatility in the stock market caused by the surge in energy prices due to the Iran war is eroding the confidence of some of the most reliable bulls in the market: retail investors. For example, on Wednesday, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index surged to its highest level since March sparked by the U.S.-Iran ceasefire news and forced hedge funds to close out their bearish positions. Although institutional investors rushed to cover short positions, individual traders showed great reluctance to chase the rally. Instead, they used this rally as an opportunity to reduce their positions at highs. According to JPMorgan's data, retail investors net-sold ETFs at the fastest pace in a year on Wednesday, signaling a significant departure from their usual behavior. By the end of the day, ETF holdings by retail investors had fallen to the lowest level in 10 months. Oil prices still face upside risks! JPMorgan joins the bulls on Wall Street: focusing on progress in the Hormuz Strait restoration. Several investment banks have pointed out that with a temporary cooling of the situation in the Middle East, the pricing logic of international oil prices is undergoing a shift - the market's focus is shifting from the conflict itself to progress and pace in the resumption of transportation through the Hormuz Strait. Despite the ceasefire providing an opportunity for supply restoration, there is still uncertainty surrounding the resumption of navigation, and if progress is slower than expected, oil prices face increasing upside risks. In this context, international oil prices have fallen from the previous high near $120 per barrel but are still hovering around $100 per barrel. JPMorgan stated that current market pricing has factored in expectations for a relatively quick recovery in transportation through the Hormuz Strait in the coming months, including a 50% restoration of normal flow by May and full restoration by June. BCA Research strategist reveals the "critical point" of the US-Iran conflict: a 15% retreat in stocks and bonds may trigger a Trump policy reversal. BCA Research's Chief Strategist Daval Joshi has identified a specific market threshold that could determine the course of the US-Iran conflict - a collective 12%-15% decline in stocks and bonds. Joshi states that this level represents the "critical point" for U.S. President Trump in the current conflict as well as the tariff war last year. The strategist pointed out, "The market is currently 7% above this critical point," indicating that a 7% collective sell-off is a solid support level for the S&P 500 index and US Treasury bonds with maturities of over 20 years. In his analysis, Joshi believes, "Iran doesn't need to sink any U.S. warships - causing havoc in U.S. stock and bond markets could inflict greater damage." A hundred times stronger than top hackers? Anthropic's latest AI model raises cybersecurity concerns, Bezent, Powell urgently summons Wall Street executives for a meeting. Concerns about cybersecurity risks arising from the latest model launched by the artificial intelligence company Anthropic have prompted U.S. Treasury Secretary Bezent and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to urgently convene a non-public meeting with major bank CEOs on Wall Street at the Treasury Department headquarters in Washington. According to informed sources, the meeting was arranged hastily, highlighting that regulatory agencies consider the new generation of AI-driven cyber attacks as one of the biggest threats facing the financial industry. The banks attending the meeting have been identified by regulatory agencies as Financial Institutions, Inc. with global systemic importance, and their security and stability are crucial to the global financial system. Stock-specific News Applied Digital (APLD.US) Q3 performance disappoints: Revenue surges by 139% but falls by 8%, analysts closely watch the next lease agreement. Applied Digital released its third-quarter financial report on Thursday Eastern Time, showing that Q3 revenue was $1.266 billion, a 139% increase from the same period last fiscal year, exceeding market average expectations; net loss attributable to common shareholders was $100.9 million, a 179% decrease from the same period last fiscal year, with net loss per share attributable to common shareholders (basic and diluted) of $0.36, falling short of market average expectations. Needham maintains a "Buy" rating on the stock with a target price of $41. The firm noted that the company's execution progress is in line with expectations, and they are currently waiting for a lease agreement with a large-scale customer. SpaceX's Texas chip assembly factory enters the installation phase! Paving the way for Musk's cosmic-level AI computing ambitions. SpaceX, the global leader in space exploration founded by Tesla, Inc.'s Elon Musk, has begun installing core production and manufacturing equipment at its advanced chip assembly factory in Bastrop, Texas, with the aim of ramping up large-scale production tasks at the facility by the end of this year. Insiders familiar with the situation have indicated that there have been some delays in SpaceX's related timelines, but the company still aims to start large-scale production by the end of the year. This factory, which focuses on advanced packaging technology, will deeply integrate with a potential market value of up to $2 trillion in SpaceX's Starlink semiconductor and terminal supply chain, filling in the gaps for RF chip advanced packaging, core chip terminal manufacturing and packaging, and chip supply chain autonomy in the Starlink terminal. Royal Caribbean Group (RCL.US) heir tops the list of Q1 U.S. internal sellers, tech stock sell-off ratio drops sharply, highlighting cautious sentiment. In the first quarter of this year, with the outlook for the technology industry becoming more cautious, many common internal sellers have reduced their stock sales, making Royal Caribbean Group heir Alne Alexander's, Inc. Williamson the largest internal seller in Q1. Data shows that in the first quarter, 4419 insiders sold $16.3 billion worth of stock, higher than the $15.5 billion sold by 3867 individuals in the same period last year. The top ten sellers collectively sold $2.3 billion less, compared to $3.8 billion in the same period last year. Among them, the Williamson family office sold stocks worth more than $500 million, marking the first sale since 2024. Peter Thiel sold $290 million worth of Palantir (PLTR.US) stock through a pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plan, ranking second on the list. Lumentum (LITE.US) orders close to full until 2028! Can optical communication take over the storage sector and become the next "super trend" in AI computing power? Lumentum announces that orders may be filled until 2028, with NVIDIA Corporation pledging $2 billion to lock down production capacity. Various indicators suggest that optical components are replicating the surge logic of HBM and are set to become the next "storage-level" trend in AI computing infrastructure. Lumentum CEO Michael Helston stated that demand from top U.S. tech companies for their optical components is growing rapidly and is expected to fill their order book until 2028. Helston said in an interview in Tokyo on Friday, "The capital expenditure of U.S. mega-scale cloud service providers is enormous, and it seems to have no end in sight. We are increasingly falling behind in meeting demand. We expect that within two quarters, our capacity up to the end of 2028 will be fully booked." Dark clouds of war cannot overshadow the AI boom, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR (TSM.US) Q1 revenue exceeds expectations, up 35%. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. Sponsored ADR announced a 35% growth in revenue for the latest quarter on Friday, indicating that global demand for artificial intelligence (AI) chips remained stable in the initial weeks of the Middle East conflict's outbreak. The major chip manufacturer for NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US) and Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) reported sales of 1.13 trillion New Taiwan dollars (approximately $35.6 billion) for the three months ending in March, above the analyst average expectation of 1.12 trillion New Taiwan dollars. Sales in March increased by 45%. Important Economic Data and Events Bulletin 20:30 Beijing time: U.S. March CPI year-over-year not seasonally adjusted. 22:00 Beijing time: U.S. February factory orders month-over-month, U.S. April University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary. 01:00 the next day Beijing time: U.S. total weekly rig count up to April 10th. 03:30 the next day Beijing time: CFTC releases weekly Commitments of Traders Report.