Guosen: Oil prices rose in March, paying attention to the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Guosen released a research report stating that, influenced by the US-Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has been continuously blocked since early March, causing shipping to come to a standstill. In addition, oil storage facilities have reached saturation, leading Gulf countries to cut total oil production by more than 11 million barrels per day, with over 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity forced to cease production. Considering the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, future crude oil supply will need to continue monitoring the situation in the strait. Due to the impact of the US-Iran war, the price of Brent and WTI oil is expected to range between $80-90 per barrel in 2026, with upstream oil and gas exploration sectors expected to maintain high prosperity. Guosen's main points are as follows: March Oil Price Review The average price of Brent crude oil futures in March 2026 was $99.6 per barrel, up by $30.2 compared to the previous month, ending the month at $118.4 per barrel; WTI crude oil futures averaged $91.0 per barrel, up by $26.6 per barrel compared to the previous month, ending the month at $101.4 per barrel. In early March, the US launched military actions against Iran, Iran retaliated and announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, major oil-producing countries in the Middle East were forced to cut production, concerns of supply disruption escalated, and international oil prices surged. In mid-March, Trump stated that military actions against Iran would end soon, easing market panic significantly. However, the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, Iranian energy facilities were attacked, Iran threatened to hit oil facilities in three Middle Eastern countries, and fears of supply disruptions increased, causing oil prices to first fall then rise. In late March, Trump stated that both sides had engaged in dialogue and postponed attacks on Iranian energy facilities, sending a signal of easing tensions. The US submitted a peace proposal, Iran denied negotiations with the US, the US considered sending ground troops to the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz was closed again, oil prices plunged, then shook and recovered, eventually rising. Oil Price Outlook Supply side: Influenced by the US-Iran conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has been continuously blocked since early March, causing shipping to come to a standstill. In addition, oil storage facilities have reached saturation, leading Gulf countries to cut total oil production by over 11 million barrels per day, with over 3 million barrels per day of refining capacity forced to cease production. OPEC+ will continue to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day in May 2026, raising US crude oil production from 13.32 million barrels per day to 13.83 million barrels per day in 2027. However, given the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, future crude oil supply will need to continue monitoring the situation in the strait. Demand side: International major energy agencies predict that global crude oil demand will increase by 85-138 thousand barrels per day in 2026, and by 134-143 thousand barrels per day in 2027. According to the latest March reports from OPEC, IEA, and EIA, global crude oil demand is estimated to be 106.53 million barrels per day, with an increase of 138, 85, and 124 thousand barrels per day compared to 2025; OPEC and EIA predict demand for 2027 to be 107.87 and 106.61 million barrels per day, with an increase of 134 and 143 thousand barrels per day compared to 2026, showing a growth in demand compared to 2026. Due to the impact of the US-Iran war, the price of Brent and WTI oil is expected to range between $80-90 per barrel in 2026, with the upstream oil and gas exploration sectors expected to maintain high prosperity. Related recommendations Key recommendations include CNOOC Limited (600938.SH), PetroChina (601857.SH), Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ), Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group (600989.SH), and CNOOC Energy Technology & Services (600968.SH). Risk warning Fluctuations in raw material prices; fluctuations in product prices; lower-than-expected downstream demand, etc.