The TACO script is staged as scheduled! Trump's "civilization extinction ultimatum" turned into a ceasefire for two weeks, and the technology stocks are on the verge of a super counterattack.

Just as investors in the stock market made aggressive bets starting on Monday, another "TACO moment" driving a major rebound in popular AI tech stocks, cryptocurrencies, and high-yield corporate bonds globally has arrived as scheduled. After the normal trading session closed on Tuesday, US President Trump, before the ultimatum at 8 p.m. local time on Tuesday, posted on social media that he agreed to pause the bombing and attacks on Iran for two weeks. With both the US and Israel agreeing to a temporary ceasefire, and less than 12 hours after Trump's furious threat to make the entire civilization of Iran disappear, the tense situation between the US and Iran saw a dramatic reversal. Following the announcement of the latest ceasefire news, US WTI crude oil futures have fallen by 17% overall. However, for this decline to continue, traders may need to see real and immediate resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the futures of the three major US stock market indices surged after the close of the US stock market, with the Nasdaq 100 index, known as the "global tech stock barometer," skyrocketing nearly 3%. Trump's latest extension follows his consistent pattern of extreme pressure/threats, setting a final deadline and then delaying or extending itthe classic "TACO moment." In his latest post on social media, Trump wrote, "Prime Minister Shaaz and Army Chief Asim Munir of Pakistan requested in their dialogue to postpone sending 'devastating military pressure forces' to Iran by the US East Coast on the evening of June 7th, based on their dialogue, and considering that the Iranian government agreed to 'fully, immediately, and safely' reopen shipping in the Hormuz Strait, I agreed to suspend bombing and attacking Iran for two weeks." He then explained, "This will be a bilateral ceasefire agreement." Trump stated that the reason for the ceasefire decision was that "we have achieved and exceeded all military objectives," and emphasized that substantial progress has been made towards a final agreement on "long-term peace with Iran" and achieving "peace in the Middle East." Trump stated that the US received a proposal from Iran, containing ten points, and believed that "this proposal provides a viable framework for negotiations between both sides. Almost all past disputes between the US and Iran have been resolved, and two weeks will finalize and take effect the agreement. As the President of the United States and representative of the Middle East countries, I am honored to make progress on resolving this long-standing issue." Trump's ultimatum has turned into a live show of "the wolf is coming!" The market's gambling on the "TACO script" is unfolding as scheduled. Historical experience tells investors that since March 23, Trump has repeatedly postponed deadlines related to Iran. The latest geopolitical news dynamics are indicating that the White House's true response function is more like "threatening on the side, observing negotiation progress, and reserving extension options." These seemingly contradictory signs are why the market is starting to price in another short-term version of the "TACO moment," which will drive a major rebound in stocks and other risky assets. The TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) strategy, born during the unprecedented "tit-for-tat tariff" campaign launched by Trump globally in April 2025, is becoming increasingly popular among traders. When Trump makes more aggressive tariff threats or other major threats that trigger a market decline, global stock and bond market investors bet that he will ultimately back down or that the actual policy will be far less stringent than Trump's threats, leading to a significant economic expansion. Pepperstone strategist Michael Brown wrote in a report to clients, "As we have repeatedly pointed out, participants have been eager for any positive developments like a ceasefire and more eager to see concrete actions taken by both parties to ease tensions." For global risk assets like stocks, the direct implication of this latest ceasefire news is that the tail-end upward risk has cooled significantly in the short term, and risky assets have gained a clear bullish breathing space. For global tech stock assets, such easing is usually more sensitive than the broader market, as the tech sector has been hit harder by geopolitical risks, oil price spikes, and discount rate pressures. Once the worst-case scenario temporarily eases, risk appetite repair often flows first to high-beta tech growth stocks. The stock strategist team from Goldman Sachs, a Wall Street financial giant, stated that as global tech stock valuations have fallen below the valuation measure level of the MSCI Global Equity Market Index, the tech sector is becoming increasingly attractive to investors. Recently, Goldman Sachs has shifted from a cautious stance to a more bullish view on future stock market trends. A capital flow research report from Goldman Sachs on Monday showed that the systemic sell-off pressures leading to the decline are declining, and in the next month, "fast money" funds (large-scale funds around CTA strategies) are likely to switch from passive selling to net buying, indicating that the mechanical selling pressure that has been suppressing the market is gradually turning into supportive factors for a rebound. In a research report released by the Goldman Sachs trading team on Monday, they highlighted that "one of the most important market marginal changes is progressing positively toward the long side." Led by Peter Oppenheimer, the Goldman Sachs strategist team wrote in a research report on Tuesday that after the recent sharp decline in the tech sector due to the recent Middle East geopolitical storm, tech stocks are now starting to offer very attractive long-term investment opportunities for investors. Oppenheimer and other strategists wrote, "Relative to Wall Street analysts' expected consistent earnings growth, their valuations have fallen below the level of the global stock market as a whole." At the beginning of this week, the trading team at Goldman Sachs revealed in a research report that "one of the most significant market marginal changes is moving actively towards bull markets." Led by Oppenheimer, the Goldman Sachs strategist team's bullish logic is in valuation and long-term allocation reasonsemphasizing that global tech stocks have become cheaper and more attractive compared to growth prospects after the recent pullback; while this systematic fund research is on a trading level, in a short-term framework, leaning towards long sideemphasizing that once the rebound continues, "fast money" strategies like CTA and volatility target funds may further increase buying, amplifying the upward slope. Within the tech sector, stocks directly related to AI computing infrastructuresuch as NVIDIA, TSMC, AMD, and the "AI computing supergroup" led by Broadcomare often the most sensitive and first movers with the largest upward momentum in the overall market and tech stock rebound logic. The core logic behind this layer can be described as extremely "hardcore": it directly ties into the record-breaking AI capital expenditures of tech giants, rather than just storytelling. The subsector of the "AI computing chain" has been the most sensitive and quick-to-react area in terms of market rebound logic and has shown the most intense rebound momentum in recent risk asset rebounds on March 16 and March 31. This trend means that in a "risk-mitigating rebound" scenario, tech stocks closely related to AI computing infrastructure will likely be one of the core bullish directions of the market in the future. This potential trend also signifies that the sub-sectors such as AI GPU/ASIC, OCS switches, and optical interconnects, optical modules/silicon photonics, HBM/storage, 2.5D/3D advanced packaging, and data center power chains, which are highly tied to profit elasticity and record AI capital expenditures, are the most likely to be prioritized for funding when risk preferences improve. The team of traders at Goldman Sachs sees significant signs of a low-buying point in global stock markets for "quick money" funds like CTA, and at the strategic level of medium to long-term asset allocation, the team led by Oppenheimer believes that tech stocks have become increasingly attractive. In their latest research report, the team led by Oppenheimer at Goldman Sachs stated that if the Iran conflict causes any persistent shocks to the global economy, it may also benefit the sector in the long run because the cash flow of the tech industry has a lower sensitivity to economic growth. Oppenheimer and other analysts emphasized that as valuations fall below the overall stock market valuation, the tech sector is becoming increasingly attractive for investors. Veteran Wall Street analyst Yardeni and another Wall Street financial giant, Wells Fargo, also support the bullish view of Goldman Sachs, that the tech sector has gradually moved from "overvalued crowded trades" to "attractiveness for medium to long-term allocation." Senior strategist Ed Yardeni emphasized that while tech stocks are still being suppressed by emotions and geopolitical disturbances in the short term, a more cost-effective long-term investment window is opening up for long-term capital, based on earnings resilience, valuation digestion, and long-term AI penetration logic.