Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures fell short-term. It is rumored that Iran has refused to reach any temporary ceasefire agreement with the United States.

Pre-market market trends 1. As of the close of the pre-market on April 7th (Tuesday), Dow Jones futures fell 0.43%, S&P 500 index futures fell 0.48%, and Nasdaq futures fell 0.64%. 2. As of the close of pre-market, the German DAX index fell 0.29%, the UK FTSE 100 index fell 0.11%, the French CAC40 index rose 0.21%, and the European Stoxx 50 index fell 0.41%. 3. As of the close of pre-market, WTI crude oil rose 2.76% to $115.51 per barrel. Brent crude oil rose 0.95% to $110.81 per barrel. Market News Iran reportedly rejected any temporary ceasefire agreement with the United States, and explosions were heard on the island of Harq. Sources revealed that Iran has rejected any temporary ceasefire agreement with the United States and has set conditions for talks on "lasting peace." These conditions include an immediate cessation of attacks, guarantees that no further attacks will occur, and compensation for losses. Under the permanent peace agreement, Iran will demand fees for ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with fees varying based on the type of ship, cargo, and current passage conditions. Following US airstrikes, explosions were heard on Harq Island, although reports did not specify the target. President Trump stated on Monday that any agreement to resolve the conflict must ensure freedom of navigation through the strategic waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran does not reach an agreement by 8:00 PM EST on Tuesday, the US will destroy Iranian infrastructure including power plants and bridges. Another "TACO Moment" on the horizon? Trump's ultimatum turns into a "boy who cried wolf" show, with the market betting on a "backing down" scenario. US President Donald Trump's latest ultimatum with Iran has only hours remaining, with financial institutions and individual investors facing growing bullish sentiment and pessimistic economic narratives about "stagflation" and "recession." Investors are preparing for a range of potential outcomes, whether by increasing stock and bond holdings, increasing commodity assets, or holding cash for comprehensive hedging strategies, as they share a common view that Trump's changing stance and resulting market volatility have left them frustrated and uncertain about future pricing paths. IEA issues stern warning: Hormuz blockade could trigger "strongest energy tsunami in history," with impact surpassing three previous crises combined. International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that the current oil and gas crisis caused by the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is "more severe" than the crises of 1973, 1979, and 2022 combined. In an interview published on Tuesday, Birol stated, "The world has never experienced such a large-scale energy supply disruption." He noted that European countries, as well as Japan, Australia, and other countries, would be affected, with developing countries facing rising oil and gas prices, soaring food prices, and accelerating inflation. Birol mentioned that IEA member countries agreed last month to release some strategic reserves, with some reserves already released and the process ongoing. JP Morgan proposes Wall Street's most hawkish forecast: no rate cuts by the Fed in 2026, with a 25 basis point rate hike in 2027. JP Morgan's Chief US Economist Michael Feroli predicts that the Fed will not cut rates in 2026, with the next policy adjustment being a 25 basis point rate hike in the third quarter of 2027. This would raise the upper limit of the federal funds rate to 4.00%, up from the current range of 3.50% to 3.75%. This forecast diverges significantly from the Fed's own rate outlook and the judgments of most Wall Street institutions, with the ongoing Iran conflict driving up energy prices and stubborn inflation, showing no signs of narrowing this divergence. Trump's ultimatum shakes the market: Risk aversion drags down cryptocurrencies, with Bitcoin losing the $70,000 threshold. On Tuesday, Bitcoin prices fell as the cryptocurrency market was caught in wider market volatility ahead of the final deadline set by US President Trump for Iran. The largest cryptocurrency saw a decline of up to 2.2%, with its trading price around $68,435.59 at the time of writing. This decline wiped out the previous day's gains, when Bitcoin briefly surpassed $70,000 for the first time since March. Other digital assets also fell, with the second-largest token Ethereum experiencing a significant 2.8% drop. Global stock markets experienced volatility ahead of Trump's set deadline on Tuesday, with Trump threatening to bomb Iran's civilian infrastructure unless the Strait of Hormuz is opened. Individual Stock News Federal health insurance payments unexpectedly raised! 2027 rate "red envelope" sparks rally in US healthcare insurance sector stocks. US health insurance company stocks rose collectively in pre-market trading on Tuesday after the US government announced plans to significantly increase payment rates for the 2027 US federal health insurance Medicare Advantage program, far exceeding market expectations. In pre-market trading on Tuesday, leading US health insurance companies such as UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH.US), CVS Health (CVS.US), Elevance Health (ELV.US), Centene (CNC.US), and Molina Healthcare (MOH.US) saw stock price increases ranging from 3% to 6%. Additionally, insurance company Humana (HUM.US), which focuses on Medicare business long-term, saw its stock price surge over 9% in pre-market trading and become the best-performing stock in the S&P 500 index pre-market. Switzerland plans to refine UBS Group AG (UBS.US) capital regulations, potentially influencing the bank's future and headquarters location. Switzerland is reportedly expected to further tighten capital rules for UBS Group AG this month, a key step in determining the future of this banking giant and potentially affecting its decision to keep its headquarters in Switzerland. Since UBS Group AG completed its acquisition after the collapse of UBS in 2023, the Swiss government has pledged to strengthen oversight of the country's last remaining global bank. UBS Group AG stated that this move could require an additional $22 billion in capital. According to lawmakers and banking sources, the Swiss government is likely to insist on its core requirement in the draft law expected to be announced in April - that UBS Group AG must fully support its overseas operations with common equity Tier 1 capital (CET1). UBS Group AG believes this requirement is too stringent, but the government insists that given the bank's balance sheet size, which is approximately twice the size of the Swiss economy, this capital rule reform is essential for financial stability. Meta (META.US) rumored to be open sourcing a new generation AI model. Meta is reportedly preparing to launch a set of new artificial intelligence (AI) models led by Alexandr Wang and plans to eventually offer multiple versions of these models under an open-source license. Sources revealed that before officially releasing the new models, Meta plans to retain proprietary technology and ensure that these models do not pose new security risks. Last June, Meta announced a $14.3 billion investment in artificial intelligence startup Scale AI, acquiring a 49% stake. As part of the investment agreement, Scale AI's co-founder and CEO Alexandr Wang will join Meta to lead its "superintelligence" team focused on general artificial intelligence (AGI). Apple Inc.'s (AAPL.US) first foldable iPhone encounters engineering setbacks, production and shipment may be delayed by months. According to sources, Apple Inc. faced setbacks during the engineering testing phase of its first foldable iPhone, potentially causing delays in mass production and product shipment plans. Engineering development issues could potentially delay the first shipments of the foldable iPhone by several months in the worst-case scenario. A source familiar with the situation stated, "There were more problems in the early testing production stages than expected, requiring more time to address these issues and make necessary adjustments." Reports in January indicated that Apple Inc. would focus on launching its first foldable iPhone and two non-foldable models with upgraded cameras and larger screens, with flagship releases planned for the second half of 2026. Intel Corporation (INTC.US) is in talks with Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US), Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOGL.US) for advanced packaging services. Intel Corporation is in ongoing discussions with at least two major customers, including Amazon.com, Inc. and Alphabet Inc. Class C, for their advanced packaging services. The ambition of Intel Corporation's advanced packaging business largely depends on its ability to attract these tech giants and other external customers. A former Intel Corporation employee familiar with the company's packaging business told the media that Intel Corporation's EMIB and EMIB-T technology are designed to provide a more "surgically precise" chip packaging method than Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd.'s (TSM.US) approach. This method is expected to be more energy-efficient, space-saving, and ideally help customers reduce costs in the long run. Intel Corporation stated that EMIB-T will be implemented in wafer factories this year. Important economic data and event previews 8:30 PM Beijing time: Preliminary durable goods orders for February in the US. 8:55 PM Beijing time: Business retail sales annual rate as of the week ending March 30th in the US. 10:10 PM Beijing time: IBD consumer confidence index for April in the US. 11:00 PM Beijing time: New York Fed's one-year inflation expectations for March in the US. 12:00 AM Beijing time the next day: EIA monthly estimate of Brent crude oil prices for the year. 4:30 AM Beijing time the next day: API crude oil inventory changes for the week ending April 3rd in the US. 12:00 AM Beijing time the next day: EIA releases the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook report. 12:35 AM Beijing time the next day: FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Gursbi speaks on monetary policy for 2027. 5:50 AM Beijing time the next day: Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks on economic prospects and labor market. Performance previews Wednesday pre-market: Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL.US)