Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) challenges SpaceX as ambitions emerge. Apple Inc. (AAPL.US) becomes a key variable.

Last Friday, there were reports that the American e-commerce and cloud computing giant Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN.US) was in negotiations to acquire the satellite communications operator Globalstar, Inc. (GSAT.US) in an effort to significantly strengthen its commercial internet satellite business and compete fiercely with Elon Musk's space exploration giant SpaceX in the commercial space industry. As a result, Globalstar, Inc. stock price surged over 20% last Friday. It is worth noting for global investors that in addition to the attention-grabbing nature of this potential acquisition, there is a major variable in the form of Apple Inc., a leader in consumer electronics with popular products like the iPhone and iPad. Apple Inc. owns approximately 20% of Globalstar, Inc., which means that any acquisition of Globalstar, Inc. would require exclusive negotiations with Apple Inc. According to media reports, after lengthy negotiations, various parties associated with Globalstar, Inc. are still discussing some complex issues related to the potential acquisition deal. Acquiring Globalstar, Inc. would lay an important foundation for Amazon.com, Inc. in its "summit showdown" with SpaceX in the commercial space industry. Globalstar, Inc. is not just a "regular satellite internet company," but a mobile satellite communications (MSS) operator. It operates low-earth satellites and global ground gateways, providing voice, data, asset tracking, and satellite IoT services to retail, enterprise, and government customers. It also holds valuable spectrum assets, including Band 53/n53 in the US and ground spectrum rights in multiple countries. In essence, what Globalstar, Inc. sells is not just "satellite systems in the sky," but a complete set of satellite communication infrastructure systems including "satellite communication networks, ground gateways, spectrum licenses, and industry application scenarios." Amazon.com, Inc. urgently needs to acquire this satellite communications operator not because Globalstar, Inc. is the largest in actual scale, but because it can help Amazon.com, Inc. avoid many years of detours. Amazon.com, Inc. is in negotiations to acquire Globalstar, Inc. for approximately $9 billion in order to accelerate its low-earth satellite business and directly compete with SpaceX's satellite communication service Starlink. For Amazon.com, Inc., the most valuable assets are not individual ones, but a combination of three things: first, an existing low-earth satellite communication network and global gateway infrastructure; second, scarce and commercially viable spectrum resources, especially Band 53/n53; third, a proven commercial satellite communication landing capability verified by Apple Inc., governments, and enterprise customers. This means acquiring "licenses, infrastructure, customers, and application scenarios" all at once, rather than starting from scratch and burning money. The biggest advantage of SpaceX/Starlink is not just the large number of satellites, but the fact that it has already formed a closed loop of scale, users, channels, and application ecosystems. Starlink currently has over 9,500 satellites and over 9 million users; while Amazon.com, Inc.'s Amazon Leo (formerly Project Kuiper) plans to deploy approximately 3,200, it is still accelerating deployment and faced FCC timeline pressure due to progress issues. Acquiring Globalstar, Inc. may not immediately close the gap between Amazon.com, Inc. and Starlink in terms of the number of broadband satellites, but it can quickly fill key gaps for Amazon.com, Inc. in areas like direct-to-device connectivity, private wireless, enterprise/government scenarios, and connectivity in remote areas. Therefore, Globalstar, Inc. is crucial to Amazon.com, Inc.'s ambitions in the commercial space industry, serving as a key piece in the cloud computing and e-commerce giant's "space blueprint." However, it is not a decisive move that can defeat Starlink alone, but rather one of the core puzzles that can accelerate catching up. Its most important strategic value lies in elevating Amazon.com, Inc. from focusing solely on satellite broadband to a combination of "satellite broadband, direct device system, spectrum-driven hybrid connection platform," significantly boosting its position in the global commercial space industry chain and potentially accelerating its approach to SpaceX. However, there is still a huge variable in this deal Apple Inc. SpaceX is considering going public in June (around Musk's birthday), with a potential financing amount of up to $50 billion, making it potentially the largest IPO in history. The estimated valuation could reach an astonishing $2 trillion, surpassing Tesla, Inc.'s current valuation of approximately $1.3 trillion. The combination of Tesla, Inc., SpaceX, and xAI could form the "Musk super business empire," possibly the ultimate destiny of these three companies founded by Musk. With Musk recently making positive progress in areas such as a space AI data center, large-scale energy storage, artificial intelligence, fully autonomous driving (FSD), Robotaxi, and innovative "Optimus" humanoid Siasun Robot & Automation, the world's richest man seems to be stringing together an "ultra-vertical integrated asset chain" that can be financed and explained clearly, combining the world's hottest investment topics or narratives such as AI, communication, space, energy, and Siasun Robot & Automation into a "full-stack super cutting-edge technology infrastructure platform," which would undoubtedly be of significant help in pricing the SpaceX IPO on a large scale, elevating Tesla, Inc.'s valuation, roadshows for medium-term IPOs, and the investor structure. If Amazon.com, Inc. eventually acquires Globalstar, Inc., what does that mean for Apple Inc.? Apple Inc. previously made a $400 million equity investment in Globalstar, Inc. and paid $1.1 billion for infrastructure to acquire this stake and help Globalstar, Inc. build its satellite communication network. It is understood that Apple Inc. utilizes Globalstar, Inc.'s satellites for the emergency SOS function on the iPhone 14 series (and subsequent models) and related functions on the Apple Watch. This feature allows users to quickly make phone calls and send messages to emergency services; it also notifies the user's location to emergency contacts through the user's cellular mobile network service. The feature was initially launched in the US market and has since quickly expanded globally. Although many iPhone users (and emergency responders) have praised this feature, Apple Inc. has yet to charge for this service. However, the company had initially indicated that it would start charging for it after a short period. Assuming the deal between Amazon.com, Inc. and Globalstar, Inc. goes through smoothly, Julia Ostian, a senior analyst on Wall Street from the long-term investment research platform Seeking Alpha, believes that Amazon.com, Inc. may launch its own wireless satellite communication service for direct-to-device end users, possibly offering it as an exclusive benefit for Prime subscribers. "I personally expect them to incorporate it into some service tier within Amazon Prime subscriptions, or possibly integrate it with AWS and even Alexa to provide network and communication connectivity capabilities in remote areas," Ostian stated. "With its massive existing customer base, Amazon.com, Inc. has a better chance to fiercely compete with Starlink and continuously eat away at Starlink's market share - the latter already has a significant lead in user adoption and penetration rates." Julian Lin, portfolio manager of "Best Of Breed Growth Stocks," shares a similar view. "I fully expect Amazon.com, Inc. to launch its own smartphone service because it is in line with its apparent long-term goal of swallowing everything in the global consumer ecosystem," Lin stated. "Of course, this may bring some complications, such as how it would affect the business relationship between Globalstar, Inc. and Apple Inc., but I don't think this will deter Amazon.com, Inc. from its relentless ambition to dominate the global commercial space industry." Michael Piccolo, a senior analyst from Wedbush Securities, believes that, given that Apple Inc. currently holds approximately 85% of Globalstar, Inc.'s existing satellite capacity, any deal will require critical agreements on infrastructure sharing. Piccolo says that this could lead to "an unusual dynamic cooperative relationship between two direct competitors." The analysts mentioned above all suggest that for Apple Inc.'s fundamental outlook, this could mean further strengthening of its cooperation with Amazon.com, Inc., a giant in e-commerce and cloud computing. Apple Inc. and Amazon.com, Inc. have long had a collaborative relationship, with both companies working together to sell Apple Inc. devices directly on the Amazon.com, Inc. website without third-party involvement. Apple Inc. is also a long-term important customer of Amazon.com, Inc.'s cloud service (Amazon Web Services, AWS), using the platform to support many of its own services such as iCloud, Siri, and Apple Maps. "I don't think Amazon.com, Inc. will completely edge out Apple Inc. to the point where Apple Inc. abandons this partnership," analyst Ostian said. "I think it is more likely that they will let Globalstar, Inc. continue to operate as an independent entity in the long term and retain Apple Inc. as an important shareholder and major customer."