Trump threatens to escalate war and dampen hopes for ceasefire, causing natural gas prices in Europe to rise.

U.S. President Trump has increased his verbal threats, stating that he will destroy Iran's key infrastructure if Iran does not meet his conditions for ending the conflict before the deadline on Tuesday. As a result, natural gas prices in Europe have slightly increased. Benchmark futures rose by as much as 3.1%, exceeding 55% since the start of the U.S.-Iran war. As of writing, Dutch near-month natural gas futures (European natural gas benchmark) have risen by 1.5% to 50.80 euros per megawatt-hour. President Trump has stated that the latest ceasefire proposal from Iran is "not good enough," and reiterated that the U.S. will launch massive strikes on Iran's key infrastructure if they do not reopen the Strait of Hormuz before the deadline. Mediators are pessimistic about Iran's chances of "submitting" to the ultimatum set by President Trump and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with hopes of a ceasefire agreement diminishing. Trump has stated that if Iran does not reach an agreement before the deadline of 8 pm Eastern time on Tuesday (8 am Wednesday Beijing time), it would take the U.S. military only "4 hours" to destroy all bridges and power plants in Iran, rendering them unusable forever. Trump also insists that freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz must be part of any agreement, and reopening the strait is "a very important priority." Iran has warned that if such attacks occur, it will increase its attacks on energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, potentially exacerbating global energy supply tensions. For European natural gas in particular, prolonged disruptions could make efforts to replenish fuel inventories more complicated currently, European natural gas stocks are only slightly above 28%. While most of the gas from the Middle East usually flows to Asia, continued interruptions in the region could intensify competition for limited global liquefied natural gas resources. According to sources in the industry, Iranian authorities have not allowed any liquefied natural gas-carrying ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz for several weeks, potentially exacerbating global shortages of liquefied natural gas. The number of ships passing through the strait has drastically decreased since the outbreak of the war. Tankers and other ships usually need Iran's permission to slowly pass through this narrow waterway and one-fifth of the global supply of liquefied natural gas is still cut off.