"GuocoBank "surrenders": no longer expects the Fed to cut interest rates this year."

The Investment Research Institute of Wealth Bank has updated its 2026 monetary policy outlook and no longer expects the Fed to cut interest rates in the next year. This update indicates that more institutions believe the Fed may continue to stand pat to assess the complex and uncertain inflation situation. The financial institution stated that any shift towards loosening policy must be predicated on inflation steadily approaching the target level. However, the inflation trend remains unpredictable, especially considering the geopolitical risks associated with the ongoing tensions with Iran. These developments could lead to short-term price pressures, especially in the energy market, making the Fed's decision-making process more complex. Despite the recent uptick in inflation possibly being temporary, Wealth Bank believes that the overall risk environment currently leans towards a more cautious strategy. Therefore, the bank expects the Fed to maintain its current policy stance, keeping the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%.