Goldman Sachs: Expects a larger scale surplus in the global copper market this year, lowers copper price forecast to $12,650.

Goldman Sachs said that it is expected that there will be a larger scale of surplus in the global copper market this year, and it has lowered its copper price forecast. The average forecast for copper prices this year has been reduced from $12,850 per ton to $12,650 per ton, as the global economic slowdown driven by energy factors has led to weak demand. The bank stated that it currently expects a surplus of 490,000 tons of refined copper in 2026, higher than the previous forecast of 380,000 tons. Goldman Sachs has lowered its global refined copper demand growth expectations for this year from 2% to 1.6%. Previously, the bank's economists estimated that the rise in energy prices could cause the global GDP growth rate to decrease by 0.4 percentage points. Goldman Sachs stated that if demand prospects remain weak while maintaining production assumptions, it will lead to a significant increase in inventories. It is expected that markets outside the United States will be close to supply-demand balance, prompting a nearly 2 percentage point downward adjustment in copper price changes year-on-year. In the short term, Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to remain volatile as the market evaluates the impact of tensions in the Middle East on economic growth. Assuming that energy transport through the Strait of Hormuz resumes in mid-April and the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates twice later this year, the bank predicts that copper prices will average $12,700 in the second quarter of this year, before falling to a reasonable value of $12,000 in the second half of the year. Looking ahead to 2026 and beyond, Goldman Sachs maintains its view that with supply constraints becoming apparent and accelerated demand from electrification and investment in the electrical grid, copper prices could rise to $15,000 by 2035.