How does the closure of the Mandeb Strait affect global trade? Analysts warn that European trade could be completely paralyzed.

Last week, Iran's Supreme Leader's foreign affairs adviser warned the United States that the Iranian resistance front may further blockade the Strait of Hormuz. The impact of this move will not only be limited to the ongoing war but may also exacerbate the global energy supply crisis triggered by the conflict. In 2024, approximately 4.1 billion barrels of crude oil and refined oil pass through the Strait of Hormuz, accounting for 5% of the global total. If both the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Hormuz are closed, it will block 25% of the global oil and gas supply and further impact maritime shipping from Asia to Europe. Approximately 10% of global trade passes through the Strait of Hormuz. This includes containers shipped from China, India, and other Asian countries to Europe. With the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control against the backdrop of the Strait of Hormuz, its importance to Europe has further increased. Elisabeth Kendall, director of the Girton College, Cambridge University, warned that if both the Strait of Hormuz and the Strait of Hormuz are simultaneously restricted, European trade will be severely disrupted, even paralyzed. However, she also believes that although control of the Strait of Hormuz is tempting for the Houthi armed forces in Yemen, they may not want to anger Saudi Arabia and would not want to trigger a broader chain reaction. Oil transportation stagnation Iran-supported Houthi armed forces intervened in the Strait of Hormuz during the most intense period of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, causing a substantial blockade that was not resolved until a ceasefire agreement was reached with the United States in May 2025, reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Since late March this year, the Houthi armed forces have begun launching missiles and drones towards Israel, indicating their intention to participate in the US-Iran-Israel conflict. However, former US diplomat Nabeel Khoury believes that the missile attacks launched by the Houthi armed forces on Israel are symbolic participation rather than full participation. Khoury emphasizes that the real weapon of the Houthi armed forces is to block the Strait of Hormuz. They only need to fire at a few passing ships to make all commercial ships passing through the Red Sea unable to pass through. However, this is a red line, and once crossed, people will quickly see the US and Israel strike against Yemen. On the other hand, if the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, Saudi Arabia, which relies on pipeline exports of oil, will also not stand idly by. It now increasingly transports its oil via the Red Sea ports through the channels. Once the Strait of Hormuz is cut off, Saudi crude oil will struggle to flow to Asia. Allison Minor of Atlantic China Welding Consumables, Inc. previously pointed out that with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia is increasingly relying on the Red Sea route to maintain its oil exports to Asia. If the Red Sea route is interrupted, oil flow in the Gulf region will come to a complete halt within weeks.