Brokerage Morning Meeting Highlights | Focus on Stocks Benefiting from High Oil Prices

Last Friday, the market fluctuated throughout the day, with the three major indices opening high and closing low, and the Shanghai index once again falling below the 3900 point mark. The large and small indices showed significant differentiation, with the performance of small and medium-sized stocks weaker, and the micro-cap stock index falling by over 3.5%. The turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1.66 trillion yuan. In terms of sectors, concepts such as computing hardware, computing leasing, Siasun Robot&Automation, and industrial gases saw gains. On the downside, sectors such as electricity and coal declined. By the close, the Shanghai index fell by 1%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.99%, and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.73%. At today's brokerage morning meeting, CITIC SEC believes that the allocation should gradually focus on Chinese manufacturing advantage; CICC believes to focus on stocks benefiting from high oil prices; Huatai believes that the "Spring Break + Qingming Festival" holiday will boost travel demand. CITIC SEC: Allocation should gradually focus on Chinese manufacturing advantage It is expected that the war will come to an end later this month, but the possibility of "weaponization" of the Hormuz Strait and intermittent disruptions in the supply chain is increasing. Currently, among the five fundamental clues (dividends, outbound, AI, PPI, and domestic consumption), only PPI, domestic AI, and consumption have not been fully priced. After the war subsides, the transmission from oil to PPI to corporate profits is the most important fundamental factor, domestic AI is a relatively independent industry change, and the trading of domestic consumption will probably lag behind PPI trading. Of course, the trading of "PPI -> corporate profits" will only start after the war subsides and oil prices peak. In the process of market cooling, the allocation should gradually focus on Chinese manufacturing advantage. CICC: Focus on stocks benefiting from high oil prices The impact of high oil prices is not "indiscriminate", and the differences are mainly reflected in two dimensions: 1) Diversified energy sources and alternatives can minimize the impact of high oil prices, such as China's diversified energy sources and the shale oil development in the United States. Benefiting from energy alternative solutions or lower oil and gas costs (even as direct exporters of energy), they have natural immunity to cope with high oil prices; 2) Cost absorption capacity and production resilience, even if affected, due to energy security systems, economies of scale, supply chain resilience etc., the damage is lower than that of competitors. They can even benefit from expanding market share when forced to clear other production capacities, such as steel and aluminum. Huatai: "Spring Break + Qingming" holiday boosts travel demand The Spring Break combined with the Qingming holiday has released the residents' travel demand, with the radius of residents' travel significantly expanding year-on-year, and self-driving tours leading the way. From the day before the Qingming holiday to the second day of the holiday, cross-regional population flow increased by 9.7%/3.2% compared to the same period in 2024/2025. The Ministry of Transport data shows that railway/waterway/road/civil aviation passenger flows increased by 10.4%/17.5%/2.6%/4.1% respectively year-on-year, and non-commercial small car traffic on highways and ordinary national and provincial roads increased by 2.8% year-on-year, accounting for over 80% of total passenger flow. Rental cars for self-driving trips continued to rise structurally: data from Shenzhou Rental Car shows that this year's Qingming holiday, the number of car rental bookings increased by nearly double year-on-year, and cross-city car rental bookings increased by nearly 2.5 times year-on-year. Data from Flights Manager shows that the average price of domestic flights during the Qingming holiday increased by 11.7% year-on-year. This article is reprinted from "Cai Lin She", GMTEight editor: Xu Wenqiang.