Overnight US stocks | Three major indices closed higher, while Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) fell more than 2%.

On Monday, the three major indices closed higher. It was reported that the United States, Iran, and some mediators were discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire agreement, which could eventually end the war, but the chances of reaching a partial agreement by the Tuesday deadline are slim. US StocksAt the close, the Dow rose 165.21 points, or 0.36%, to 46,669.88; the Nasdaq rose 117.16 points, or 0.54%, to 21,996.34; the S&P 500 rose 29.33 points, or 0.45%, to 6,612.02. AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc. Class A (AMC.US) rose 12%, Strategy (MSTR.US) rose 6%, Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI.US) fell 5%, Tesla, Inc. (TSLA.US) fell over 2%. The NASDAQ Golden Dragon Index fell 0.2%, iQIYI, Inc. Sponsored ADR Class A (IQ.US) fell 4%. Asian Stock MarketThe Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.55%, and the KOSPI Index in South Korea rose 1.36%. CryptocurrencyBitcoin rose 1.72% to $69,515; Ethereum rose 2.46% to $2,137.23. Crude OilLight crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 87 cents to close at $112.41 per barrel, up 0.78%; Brent crude oil futures for June delivery rose 74 cents to close at $109.77 per barrel, up 0.68%. US Dollar IndexThe US Dollar Index, which measures the dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.24% to close at 99.981 in the forex market. At the close of the New York forex market, 1 euro exchanged for $1.1549, up from $1.1515 the previous trading day; 1 pound exchanged for $1.3241, up from $1.3192 the previous trading day. 1 dollar exchanged for 159.63 yen, down from 159.65 yen the previous trading day; 1 dollar exchanged for 0.7977 Swiss francs, down from 0.8008 Swiss francs the previous trading day; 1 dollar exchanged for 1.3914 Canadian dollars, down from 1.3944 Canadian dollars the previous trading day; 1 dollar exchanged for 9.4355 Swedish krona, down from 9.4828 Swedish krona the previous trading day. Precious MetalsSpot gold closed at $4,649.92, and spot silver closed at $72.789. Macro News Two Federal Reserve officials warn of severe inflation situation, "may even get worse." With the Iran war pushing up energy prices and employment market still sluggish, Fed officials Hamack and Golsby believe inflation is more serious than employment issues, implying their support for tightening rather than easing monetary policy. In an interview, they were asked to assess the economic situation using colors, ranging from "burning red" to "everything smooth green." Golsby said of the inflation outlook, "At least orange. The situation is not optimistic." "I originally optimistically thought we would return to the 2% inflation target track, but, oh my, things have taken a turn for the worse recently." Hamack also expressed concern about inflation, noting that inflation has been above target levels for five consecutive years and has been "basically flat" for the past two years, "Now is definitely a brighter, brighter orange." In terms of employment, Hamack said she was optimistic about the prospects, perhaps yellowish-green. Golsby rated the labor market as "yellow." British maritime analysis company: There are north-south "double channels" in the passage of the Strait of Hormuz. British-based maritime analysis company Windsor said on the 6th that the passage of the Strait of Hormuz has transitioned into a "double channel system," with a northern channel controlled by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard and a new southern channel along the coast of the Gulf of Oman. The company's analysis report showed that on April 5, a total of 11 ships crossed the Strait of Hormuz, including 3 entering and 8 exiting. The entering ships were all oil tankers, while the exiting ships included oil tankers and cargo ships. The outflow was distributed on two routes: 5 ships passed through the northern channel, and 3 ships chose the southern channel. The report said that the northern channel is still centrally controlled by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard near the island of Larak. At the same time, a southern channel has been formed along the coast of the Gulf of Oman, allowing ships to pass outside the original control area. The report believes that the recent evolution of the passage pattern in the strait indicates concurrent military control and emerging diplomatic coordination mechanisms. US March service price index soars to a new peak since October 2022. The US service economy expanded at a slower pace in March, with the largest decline in employment since 2023 and a substantial increase in input prices. According to data released on Monday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) service price index rose to 70.7, the highest since October 2022, an increase of 7.7 percentage points from the previous month, the largest increase in nearly 14 years. The ISM service index fell by 2.1 percentage points to 54, mainly due to weak employment and slowing business activity growth. Due to the impact of the Iran war, energy and other input costs have risen significantly, putting pressure on businesses. The service employment index fell by 6.6 percentage points to 45.2, one of the largest monthly declines since the COVID-19 pandemic. The business activity index fell by 6 percentage points to 53.9, the largest decline since mid-2024. The supplier delivery index rose to its highest level since October 2024. New orders from service providers were the strongest in over three years. Israeli airstrikes hit Iran's largest petrochemical facility, crippling over 85% of Iran's petrochemical product export capacity. The Israeli Defense Forces issued a statement on the 6th, stating that airstrikes were carried out on a large petrochemical complex in the Asaluye area of southern Iran, the largest petrochemical complex in Iran. The strikes on two major petrochemical complexes in Iran have severely affected over 85% of Iran's petrochemical product export capacity. The statement said that the Asaluye facility houses key infrastructure for producing explosives and missile propellants, which are important raw material supply hubs for Iran's missile industry. The Israeli military will continue to intensify its strikes on Iran's core military infrastructure, aiming to cause "broad and sustained destruction" to its military manufacturing capabilities. Citrini's research report is making waves again, with "field analysts" surveying the Strait of Hormuz. On April 6, Citrini Research, an independent thematic investment research institution based in New York, released a research report titled "Citrini Expedition Team No. 3 Analyst Report on the Survey of the Strait of Hormuz," quickly gaining popularity in the financial circle. In the report, "Analyst No. 3" revealed many firsthand observations and insider information about the operation of Iran's "toll station" in the strait, and provided some conclusions that are starkly different from market intuition, such as: regardless of how the situation develops, the shipping volume in the strait will gradually increase; Iran does not want to close the Strait of Hormuz. The report presents four core points: first, the shipping volume in the strait will continue to increase. Second, a diplomatic "toll station," surprisingly, the passage order in the strait is actually very well regulated. Third, escalating contradictions, even if ground actions are taken, the shipping volume in the strait may continue to increase. Fourth, a restructuring of the game, not a simple showdown. This conflict is not a simple "two-way confrontation," but a multi-party game. In February of this year, Citrini Research's "2028 Global AI Crisis" AI "thought experiment" report caused a violent shock in the US stock market, leading to a sharp decline in software stocks. Stock News Broadcom Inc. reaches a long-term agreement with Alphabet Inc. Class C to develop and supply TPU. Broadcom Inc. (AVGO.US) has signed a long-term agreement with Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG.US) to collaborate on the development and supply of Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). Broadcom Inc. will develop and supply customized TPUs for Alphabet Inc. Class C's next-generation Tensor Processing Units and will provide network and other components for Alphabet Inc. Class C's new generation of AI server racks. The agreement lasts until 2031. In addition, Broadcom Inc., Alphabet Inc. Class C, and the artificial intelligence company Anthropic are expanding their existing strategic cooperation. Starting in 2027, Anthropic will receive approximately 3.5 gigawatts of computing power through Broadcom Inc. The scale of Anthropic's use of this additional AI computing power depends on its subsequent business performance. Media: Meta to release the open-source version of its next-generation AI models. Meta Platforms (META.US) is reportedly preparing to release the first batch of new AI models developed under the leadership of Alexandr Wang, and plans to eventually provide versions of these models under open-source licenses. According to sources, before officially releasing the new versions of the models, Meta hopes to retain some technology as proprietary and ensure that these technologies do not bring new security risks. Alexandr Wang believes that Anthropic and OpenAI are increasingly focused on providing their models to governments and businesses. In contrast, Meta's efforts focus on consumers. Meta hopes that its models will be widely popularized globally. Sources said that Meta understands that its new models may not be able to compete with new products from labs in terms of overall performance, but believes that they still have advantages in certain areas, attracting consumers. In addition, Meta will not completely return to its early open stance. Major Bank Ratings Morgan Stanley: Raised Seagate Technology Holdings PLC's (STX.US) target price from $468.00 to $582.00. Raised Western Digital Corporation's (WDC.US) target price from $369.00 to $380.00. Mizuho Bank: Lowered Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s (SMCI.US) target price from $33 to $25; raised Dell Technologies, Inc. Class C's (DELL.US) target price from $180 to $215.