KeyBanc: Delay of Rubin has limited impact, does not change positive outlook on NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA.US).

Against the backdrop of strong demand for artificial intelligence chips, NVIDIA Corporation's key production capacity remains stable, but the pace of advancement of its new generation GPU products may be affected by memory technology bottlenecks. According to a report released by KeyBanc Capital Markets after researching the Asian supply chain, NVIDIA Corporation has essentially secured its supply in advanced packaging technology CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate). It is expected that by 2026, CoWoS production capacity will reach 650,000 units (a year-on-year increase of 76%), further increasing to 840,000 units in 2027 (a year-on-year increase of 29%), demonstrating its long-term advantage in AI chip production capacity. In terms of product structure, it is estimated that by 2026, CoWoS production capacity can support approximately 5.5 to 6 million Blackwell GPUs, 1.5 million Rubin GPUs, and 1 million Hopper GPUs, overall meeting the high demand for AI computing power in the market. However, analyst John Vinh pointed out that the mass production progress of NVIDIA Corporation's new generation Rubin GPU may be slightly delayed, mainly due to the progress of validation for the next-generation high bandwidth memory (HBM4). As HBM4 is still in a critical certification stage, the production target for Rubin GPUs has been lowered from the previous expectation of 2 million units to 1.5 million units. As a result, KeyBanc has also lowered its shipment expectations for NVIDIA Corporation's AI server system (Vera Rubin racks) from the previous 12,000 to 14,000 units to around 6,000 units, reflecting a potential slowdown in the deployment pace of high-end AI hardware in the short term. Nevertheless, Vinh believes that the impact is "relatively limited" and has not changed his overall positive view on NVIDIA Corporation. He still maintains a "overweight" rating and a target price of $275.