Preview of US Stock Market | Three major stock index futures were mixed, and it is rumored that a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran may take effect on the 6th. Trump plans to hold a press conference.

Pre-market Market Trends 1. Before the market opened on April 6th (Monday), the futures of the three major US stock indexes were mixed. As of the time of writing, the Dow futures were down 0.10%, the S&P 500 futures were up 0.11%, and the Nasdaq futures were up 0.38%. 2. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index was down 0.56%, the UK FTSE 100 index was up 0.69%, the French CAC 40 index was down 0.24%, and the European Stoxx 50 index was down 0.70%. 3. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil was down 1.47% at $109.90 per barrel. Brent crude oil was down 0.45% at $108.54 per barrel. Market News The US-Iran ceasefire agreement may come into effect on the 6th. According to reports, a source indicated that the US and Iran have received a proposal for a ceasefire agreement, which may come into effect on the 6th. Pakistan has drafted a framework for ending the conflict and has been in communication with the US and Iran. The proposal aims to achieve an immediate ceasefire, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and reach a final agreement within 15 to 20 days. The final agreement may include Iran's commitment not to seek nuclear weapons in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and unfreezing of frozen assets. On April 6th, a senior Iranian government official stated that they had received the latest ceasefire proposal from the Pakistani mediator and were reviewing the contents. The official indicated that Iran would not accept deadlines or pressure to make a decision. Iran would not reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for a "temporary ceasefire". Iran believes that the US is not yet ready to achieve a permanent ceasefire. Trump hints at further delaying the destruction of Iranian energy facilities and plans to hold a press conference. US President Trump tweeted on social media on the 5th stating, "Tuesday night at 8 PM Eastern Time." Some media interpreted this as another delay in the deadline set by him for the action to destroy Iranian energy facilities, extending it by a day. Earlier that day, he had mentioned this new deadline on social media. In the post, he said, "April 7 will be Iran's power plant and bridge day," hinting at a fierce bombing of Iran's power plants and bridges. Iran's Supreme Leader's foreign affairs advisor warned the US on the 5th that if they "make another mistake," the Iran-led resistance front would block the Strait of Hormuz as a countermeasure. Additionally, on April 5th, Trump mentioned in an interview that the US is currently engaged in "deep negotiations" with Iran and hopes to reach an agreement before his set deadline of April 7th. He stated that if Iran does not reach an agreement with the US soon, he would order "to blow up everything" and "take over the oil." It is worth noting that Trump also said that he would hold a press conference with the military in the Oval Office of the White House on April 6th at 1 PM local time. Delta Air Lines, Inc. earnings report accompanies dense US inflation data. In addition to the closely watched Middle East situation, US consumer spending and inflation indicators will be the focus of the market this week. The US February Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and the March Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Thursday and Friday respectively. As investors try to assess the economic impacts of the Middle East war, these two inflation data releases will provide the first real readings on how commodity price increases are affecting US inflation transmission. Investors will also get market sentiment signals from the preliminary readings of the University of Michigan's April Consumer Sentiment, Current Conditions, and Expectations data on Friday. In terms of corporate earnings, Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL.US) will report earnings on Wednesday, which will be a key indicator of how the Iran war and subsequent surge in aviation fuel prices impact the aviation industry, which is highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations. The "Strongest April" for US stocks becomes a bubble? Three major headwinds strike, and the road to recovery may fall short. After a turbulent first quarter, investors were hopeful that US stocks could rebound in April, traditionally a "strong month." However, reality may be more harsh than historical patterns, as the convergence of multiple negative forces is making the prospects for market recovery uncertain. Although there was a brief rebound in US stocks at the beginning of April, and historical data shows that April is often the second-best month for the S&P 500 in terms of performance throughout the year, the current macro environment is different. Empower's Chief Investment Strategist Marta Norton bluntly stated that the core anxiety in the current market is "the situation with Iran." This conflict has not only pushed up oil prices but also directly threatens the three pillars that support the stock market rebound - slowing inflation, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and strong corporate earnings. No discussion if the Strait of Hormuz is not open! Eight major oil-producing countries' "symbolic" increase in production does not resolve the largest oil supply interruption in history. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued a statement on the 5th, stating that the eight major "OPEC+" oil-producing countries have decided to increase their daily crude oil production by 206,000 barrels in May. This marks the second consecutive month that these eight major oil-producing countries have announced production increases. However, in the face of the largest oil supply interruption in history, with a gap of up to 11 million barrels per day and continued disruptions in the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz, this increase can be considered negligible. With major oil-producing countries in the Middle East no longer able to increase supply to the market due to the ongoing conflict in the region, this symbolic production increase remains only on paper. The consultancy firm Energy Aspects stated that as long as the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz continues to be interrupted, this production decision "only has academic significance." OPEC+ sources admitted that while the daily increase of 206,000 barrels is less than 2% of the scale of supply interruption caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, it sends a signal that the alliance is prepared to increase production once the waterway is reopened. Stock News Paramount Sky (PSKY.US) negotiates with Gulf sovereign wealth funds to invest nearly $24 billion to support the acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD.US). Paramount Sky is reportedly in talks with three sovereign wealth funds led by Saudi Arabia, aiming to secure commitments of nearly $24 billion in equity to support its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery. The US entertainment giant announced in February that it had agreed to acquire a competitor for a total transaction value of $110 billion (with equity valued at $81 billion), with the transaction expected to be completed in the third quarter. This merger will consolidate major production studios and television networks like CNN and CBS, allowing them to be more competitive in the market in the context of streaming media continuing to divert traditional linear television audiences. To support this acquisition, the Public Investment Fund (PIF) of Saudi Arabia has reportedly agreed to provide around $10 billion in funding. Other contributors may include the Qatar Investment Authority and L'imad Holding from Abu Dhabi. United Parcel Service (UPS.US) reaches a settlement with the truck drivers' union, offering early retirement compensation of $150,000 to 7,500 drivers. United Parcel Service announced last Sunday that it has reached an agreement with the International Brotherhood of Teamsters to cap the severance compensation plan offered to 7,500 drivers affected by the company's layoff plans. Under the agreement, UPS will provide $150,000 in compensation to drivers who choose early retirement. The Union had sought to block the parcel delivery giant from implementing the "Driver Selection Plan," arguing that the plan was initiated without negotiation and violated the labor agreement between the two parties in 2023. The Union argued that the relevant contract terms overall prohibit UPS from entering into such individual agreements with its drivers. Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO.US) skyrockets in pre-market trading, acquired by Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX.US) for $2.9 billion. Neurocrine Biosciences announced on Monday that it would acquire rare disease drug company Soleno Therapeutics for $2.9 billion in cash, marking the pharmaceutical company focused on neuroscience expanding into the metabolic disease field. Neurocrine Biosciences proposed to acquire Soleno Therapeutics shares at $53 per share, a premium of about 34% over the stock's previous day's closing price. The deal gives Neurocrine Biosciences the rights to the drug Vykat XR, the first drug approved in the US for the treatment of hyperphagia associated with Prader-Willi syndrome. Hyperphagia, intense and persistent hunger, is a typical symptom of Prader-Willi syndrome, which can lead to severe obesity and physical, psychological, and behavioral issues. As of the time of writing, Soleno Therapeutics surged nearly 34% in pre-market trading on Monday. Important Economic Data and Events Forecast 22:00 Beijing time US March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.