Iraq is exempted, and French and Japanese ships have successively passed through, with the volume of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz reaching a new high since the war.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has shown signs of loosening. Iran announced exemptions for Iraq to pass through, and French container ships and Japanese liquefied petroleum gas ships have successfully crossed. As of Friday, the seven-day rolling average number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz reached the highest level since the outbreak of conflict between the US and Iran at the end of February. The latest major variable comes from Iraq's exemption declaration. A spokesperson for the Iranian military stated in a video released by the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) that "the brotherly country of Iraq" is exempt from any restrictions imposed by Iran on the Strait of Hormuz, with the restrictions only targeting "hostile countries." If the exemption is implemented, it could theoretically release up to 3 million barrels of Iraqi oil shipments per day. Despite the gradual increase in passages, there are doubts about whether these arrangements can be sustained. It is unclear whether the Iraqi exemption applies to all Iraqi oil shipments and whether it can be effectively enforced. Iraqi officials have also warned that the actual impact of the exemption will depend on whether shipping companies are willing to risk entering the strait to load goods. Iraq Exemption: Potentially releasing up to 3 million barrels per day On April 5, a spokesperson for the Iranian military stated in a video released by IRNA that "the brotherly country of Iraq" is exempt from any restrictions imposed by Iran on the Strait of Hormuz, with the restrictions only targeting "hostile countries." Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz is one of its most crucial leverage points in the current conflict. This exemption declaration is the most significant loosening Iran has made in passage arrangements to date. In theory, the exemption has a significant impact - Iraq is one of the world's leading oil-producing countries, with daily production involving up to 3 million barrels of exports. However, an Iraqi official remains cautious about whether the exemption will actually take effect, emphasizing that the key lies in whether international shipping companies are willing to send ships through the strait. It is currently unclear whether the exemption covers all Iraqi oil or only ships flying the Iraqi flag, and enforcement mechanisms still need to be clarified. French and Japanese ships break through first, passage volume reaches new high since war outbreak Previously, the majority of ships that successfully passed through the strait came from countries friendly to Iran. The passage of French and Japanese ships marks the first break in this pattern. According to Bloomberg data, since early last Friday, a total of 13 ships have completed passage, with 10 leaving the Persian Gulf and 3 entering from the open sea. Outbound ships include 5 bulk carriers, 1 product tanker, and 4 liquefied petroleum gas carriers. CCTV News quoted sources from Japanese shipping company Mitsui stating that one of its associated liquefied petroleum gas carriers passed through the Strait of Hormuz on April 4, making it the second known Japanese-related ship to leave the Gulf since the blockade began. The French container ship CMA CGM Kribi also left the strait last Friday, becoming the first known ship associated with Western Europe to complete passage since the outbreak of the war. Abdulkadir Urhalolu, Minister of Transport and Infrastructure of Turkey, revealed that since the conflict erupted, a total of 15 ships owned by Turkish shipowners had been stranded near the strait, with the first ship receiving Iranian permission to pass through in mid-March and the second completing passage recently. The above passages occurred after French President Macron called for a ceasefire and emphasized the need to reopen the strait. However, it is still unclear whether these passages are the result of government diplomatic efforts or arrangements reached through temporary commercial negotiations by companies and intermediaries. Five-tier fee system, divergence in North-South routes Behind the gradual increase in passages is a passage mechanism led by Iran that is taking shape. According to sources cited by The Paper, the Iranian Revolutionary Guards have begun to charge "passage fees" to passing ships and have established a five-tier system based on national relations: the more friendly a country is to Iran, the more favorable the conditions it receives; countries deemed hostile face threats and even the risk of attack. Generally, negotiations for tanker passage fees start at around $1 per barrel, and payment is made in RMB or stablecoins. Pakistan has negotiated a bilateral agreement for safe passage. There is also a divergence in shipping routes. Most early ships took the northern route close to the Iranian coast - crossing the passage between Iran's Larak Island and Gheshm Island. But recently, another route has emerged: ships traveling along the Oman coast and exiting eastward through the southern waterway of the Strait of Hormuz. The Sohar, a liquefied natural gas carrier owned by a joint venture in which Mitsubishi holds a 50% stake, as well as two other very large oil tankers, have used this southern route. At the mechanistic level, Iran is drafting an agreement with Oman to jointly monitor and coordinate the passage of the Strait of Hormuz, but Oman has not yet made a clear statement. Uncertainties remain, sustainable arrangements await verification Despite the continuing increase in passage volume, the market remains cautious about whether current progress can evolve into a stable arrangement. Vessel tracking data shows that the Sohar is currently near Muscat, and after changing its destination to Oman's Qalhat liquefied natural gas export terminal, the ship appears to be sailing without cargo, having cruised in the Persian Gulf for over a month. The passage of French and Japanese ships, which contrasts with the previous patterns dominated by ships from countries friendly to Iran, does not yet indicate a substantive breakthrough on the diplomatic front. Bloomberg data shows that the current level of passage, although the highest since the war outbreak, is still minimal compared to pre-war levels - under normal circumstances, about one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas passes through the strait daily. Amid ongoing conflict and conflicting statements from all sides, whether Iraq's exemption can be realized, whether French and Japanese passages can become common practice, and whether Iran's fee mechanism can gain broader acceptance, are still core variables closely tracked by the energy market. This article is translated from "Wall Street News" by Xu Chao; edited by Huang Xiaodong.