The harder Trump hits, the stronger Iran becomes: Hormuz is pushed onto the negotiating table!
The US assassination of senior Iranian officials did not bring the "moderate" leadership that Trump expected, instead it became more hardline, and put control of the Strait of Hormuz and war reparations on the negotiation table.
The assassination operations by the US and Israel not only did not soften Iran, but instead gave birth to a tougher opponent - control over the Strait of Hormuz, which is now at the center of the negotiation table.
According to The Washington Post on April 3, a series of assassination operations targeting high-ranking Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, did not bring about the leadership change that Trump had hoped for. Several regional and Western officials have stated that the current Iranian regime has become more hardline, causing both the US and Iran to drift further apart from an agreement.
Iran has openly proposed ceasefire conditions, including war reparations and formal control over the Strait of Hormuz, and has demanded the right to collect tolls from passing ships.
A European official involved in diplomatic mediation bluntly stated, "They have shown the Gulf states how fragile these countries are and how fragile the global economy is. So the price has gone up. The Strait of Hormuz has never been part of any negotiations, and now it is at the center stage."
According to CCTV News on March 31, the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee has passed a bill to levy tolls on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The bill specifies that tolls will be in Iranian currency rials, and specific financial arrangements and toll system details are yet to be determined.
Facing the stalemate, Trump declared in a recent nationwide TV address on April 2 that the US had achieved an "overwhelming victory" in the conflict with Iran, and that extremely fierce strikes would be carried out in the next two to three weeks if no agreement was reached.
"If there is no agreement within this time frame, we already have our sights on key targets," Trump said. "If there is no agreement, we will strike their power plants very fiercely, and it is likely to be simultaneous." He also threatened to strike Iran's oil infrastructure.
However, several regional officials have stated that even if Israel continues with targeted assassinations of Iranian high-ranking officials, the hope for a breakthrough in negotiations in the coming weeks remains dim.
The logic of the Trump administration is that continued assassinations can force Iran to compromise. A former Trump administration official who served in the conflict's early stages told The Washington Post, "If the Iranian side is not flexible enough, they can continue to kill until they find someone willing to negotiate. When you apply more pressure, Iranians seem more likely to respond."
This former official acknowledged that ultimately identifying someone willing to negotiate with Trump was just "a glimmer of hope." But he believed that this strategy could at least create suspicion and internal strife within the Iranian leadership, weakening the regime further. "It's essentially killing two birds with one stone - either finding someone willing to negotiate or creating more chaos, causing internal divisions and further weakening the regime."
However, Iran strongly refutes these claims. An Iranian diplomat stated that this approach reveals a deep misunderstanding of Iranian culture and history - martyrdom is revered in Iran.
Iran grows stronger with each strike
Suzanne Maloney, Vice President of the Brookings Institution and former senior US State Department official on Iran, pointed out, "Iran has a very, very deep talent pool. It is not a personal authoritarian system relying on a few core advisers. This country has spent 47 years ensuring that it is not overthrown by external enemies or its own people."
Senior Researcher at the Middle East Institute and Iran analyst Alex Vatanka also pointed out that the current negotiators with Trump, Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, as well as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Commander Ahmad Vahidi and Supreme Leader's Military Advisor Mohsen Rezaei, all came of age during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s.
"They all rose up from the grassroots together when they were young," Vatanka said. "Having spent decades in this system, I don't think these people want to negotiate with Trump. They will steadfastly hold on to their beliefs. They are all part of the system, they may have differences, but at this moment, survival is a common interest."
It is worth noting that Iran has not been paralyzed by the targeting of high-ranking officials. Reports indicate that Iran has recently launched retaliatory attacks, hitting high-value targets including critical energy infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, Israeli industrial and energy facilities, and US military installations - including a direct strike on an advanced US reconnaissance aircraft.
According to CCTV News, an F-15E fighter jet was shot down in Iranian territory, and another A-10 attack aircraft crashed near the Strait of Hormuz. This is the first known instance of a US aircraft crashing in Iranian territory since the US and Israel launched military operations against Iran on February 28.
This article is translated from "Wall Street View". Editor: mz.
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