The increasing losses of US military aircraft have intensified market concerns: the geopolitical risk premium has been further increased.

On Friday local time, the US military suffered losses of two main fighter jets in Iranian airspace and surrounding waters. One of the jets, an F-15E "Strike Eagle" fighter bomber, was directly shot down by the Iranian air defense system, marking the first substantial setback to the US air superiority since the start of the war. This sudden military escalation quickly spread to global capital markets, not only leading to extreme danger in US military search and rescue operations, but also causing geopolitical premiums to dominate financial asset pricing. Market concerns about the prolonged and expanded conflict have significantly escalated. Escalation of conflict: Iran shoots down US fighter jets, Trump threatens escalation and fragile prospects for negotiations Iran shot down a US F-15E fighter jet, and a second US aircraft crashed in the Gulf region. These events mark a significant escalation in the global energy crisis-causing five-week war. These new developments further intensified the tension on Friday - just hours ago, US President Trump once again threatened to attack Iranian infrastructure, while Iran has targeted energy facilities in the region, escalating the offensive. According to a US official who requested anonymity, the US has rescued one crew member from the F-15E fighter jet, and the official requested anonymity to discuss sensitive information. The official said that search and rescue operations are currently underway for the second crew member. The White House said Trump has been briefed on the matter. In an interview, Trump refused to discuss the search and rescue operation. Reports suggest that he said the events would not affect negotiations with Iran that are currently ongoing. According to two US officials, a second combat aircraft, an A-10 "Warthog" attack aircraft, crashed in the Persian Gulf on Friday, and the only pilot on board has been safely rescued. This is the first known loss of a US or Israeli fighter jet in combat, signaling a heavy blow to the alliance and disrupting the fragile prospects for a deal between the US and Iran to end the conflict. On Thursday, Trump released a video of a bridge being destroyed, stating that if Iran does not agree to a deal to end the five-week conflict that has caused a global energy crisis, "there will be further action". Iran remains defiant, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stating that attacks on civilian facilities "will not force the Iranian people to surrender." The country has shown little sign of accepting Trump's peace overtures and has presented its own conditions - most of which are unacceptable to the US and Israel. Despite the US and Israel launching over 12,000 attacks on Iran since the war began at the end of February, about half of Iran's missile launchers are reportedly still intact, and thousands of single-use drones remain in Iran's arsenal. Insiders reveal that this assessment may include some launchers that are currently difficult to approach even if they have not been destroyed. Struggle for control of the Strait of Hormuz Currently, the Strait of Hormuz is almost completely closed. On Thursday, Iran reported that it is drafting an agreement with Oman to monitor traffic, seemingly further strengthening its control over the strait. According to the country's deputy foreign minister, the agreement will require shipping companies to pay Iran a toll for passage. The waterway officially lies in international waters, and any attempt by Iran to control traffic will be strongly opposed by Western powers and Gulf Arab countries. Over 40 countries held a virtual meeting on Thursday to discuss related plans, signaling to Trump their concerns about the crisis caused by the closure of the strait - over the past month, energy and other commodity prices have continued their steady rise. The organization made it clear that any ceasefire negotiations with Iran must include a solution to the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. However, the meeting indicated that these allied countries believe it is necessary to prepare to reopen the strait without US involvement. Countries like France and the UK have stated that military options are unlikely to be effective and that a ceasefire must be achieved. According to the UAE, Bahrain is proposing a resolution to the United Nations Security Council with the support of Jordan and other Arab Gulf states to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE posted on X Platform that the resolution will "provide clear legal grounds for all countries to mobilize to support safe passage." Russia, as an ally of Iran, opposes this initiative. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday that the measure would "legitimize aggression against Iran". This statement indicates that Moscow, as one of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, may use its veto power. A few ships are trying to pass through. It was reported that a container ship believed to be of French ownership recently sailed out of the Persian Gulf, apparently the first time since the war began that a ship connected to Western Europe passed through the area. Another unusual move is a liquefied natural gas tanker sailing along the coast of Oman to complete the crossing, rather than following the northern route as demanded by Tehran. Energy war triggers global crisis: facilities attacked, oil prices surge The largest natural gas processing facility in the UAE, Habshan, suspended operations after a fire caused by debris intercepted. Hours ago, a drone attack ignited Kuwait's Mina Ahmadieh refinery, which has a daily production capacity of 346,000 barrels. Kuwait also reported that an attack on Friday morning damaged a power and desalination plant; Saudi Arabia stated that several drones were intercepted early in the morning. As a result of this sudden turn of events in the war, the global energy market has experienced a rare and sharp surge. As Iran simultaneously launched attacks on critical energy infrastructure in the UAE and Kuwait, international oil prices surged violently by over 7% in a single day. Energy costs within the United States have also surged, with retail gasoline prices hitting their highest levels in nearly four years, further complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making between managing inflation and geopolitical recession risks. Analysts believe that if maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz deteriorates further, the global supply chain will face a new round of systemic shocks. Earlier this week, Trump hinted that even if the vital Strait of Hormuz remains closed, he may be willing to withdraw US troops from the conflict within two to three weeks. However, he has since been indecisive in his statements. It has been reported that he previously stated that Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz by April 6, or its power plants will be destroyed. It is unclear if this deadline is still valid. "As long as we have a little more time, we can easily open up the Strait of Hormuz, take the oil, and make a great profit," Trump posted on social media earlier on Friday. Trump continues to oscillate between describing diplomatic efforts as fruitful and the threat of further disruption, including the destruction of civilian and energy infrastructure. Earlier this week, he threatened that if the strait remains closed, he would target Iran's energy facilities and desalination plants - a move that could constitute a war crime under the Geneva Conventions. Surging oil prices resonate with election pressures The US president is facing increasing pressure from the public to mitigate energy shocks - average US retail gasoline prices have risen to over $4 per gallon, reaching the highest levels in nearly four years. Trump insists that prices will quickly drop once the war ends. He states that the conflict is necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons - a goal Tehran has consistently denied - and to destroy its missile arsenal. As the US midterm elections in November approach, the prolonged conflict poses political risks for Trump and the Republican Party. Polls show that a considerable number of Americans oppose military action against Iran, with more and more people concerned about the impact of the war on the economy. According to government agencies and the US-based "Human Rights Activists News Agency", the conflict has so far resulted in over 5,000 deaths, with nearly three-quarters in Iran. In Lebanon, Israel is engaged in a parallel war with Iran's ally, Hezbollah, resulting in the deaths of over 1,300 people. Looking ahead, the risk-off sentiment in the global financial markets may continue to consolidate. Gold prices and the US dollar index are showing strength driven by safe-haven funds, while risk assets face significant pressure from volatility. Investors need to closely monitor the outcome of the US military search and rescue operations and the actual extent of Iran's control over key waterways, as these factors will directly determine the future pivotal position of international oil prices.