Guosen: Maintaining a "outperform" rating on CALB (03931), with continuous improvement in profitability.

Guosen released a research report stating that it maintains its profit forecast for CALB (03931) and maintains a "outperform the market" rating. The bank predicts that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders will be 26.75/39.04/49.51 billion yuan from 2026 to 2028, an increase of +81%/+46%/+27% year-on-year; EPS will be 1.51/2.20/2.79 yuan respectively, with a dynamic PE ratio of 19.2/13.2/10.4 times. Guosen's main points are as follows: In 2025, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.76 billion yuan, an increase of +150%. In 2025, the company achieved revenue of 44.0 billion yuan, an increase of +60%; achieved a net profit (including minority shareholders' equity) of 20.95 billion yuan, an increase of +148%; achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 14.76 billion yuan, an increase of +150%; gross margin was 16.69%, an increase of +0.80 percentage points; net profit margin was 4.72%, an increase of +1.68 percentage points. The company's market share in the power battery market is steadily increasing, with continuous expansion of domestic and foreign customers. In 2025, the company's power battery business achieved revenue of 303.0 billion yuan, an increase of +55%; the bank estimates that the shipment volume exceeded 66GWh, an increase of +47%. In 2025, the company ranked fourth in the global power battery market shipment volume, with a market share of 5.3%, an increase of +0.7 percentage points year-on-year. In the passenger vehicle market, the company cooperates closely with core customers such as Xiaopeng, Zero Run, and GAC. In 2026, new projects such as Xiaopeng Mona, Zhijie/Shangjie, and Xiaomi/Zero Run/Xiaopeng high-energy-density range-extending platform will be delivered in batches. At the same time, the company's expansion into overseas markets has entered a new stage, having entered Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai and other automakers, with delivery quantities continuously increasing. In the commercial vehicle market, the company has deepened cooperation with Chery, Geely, Dongfeng, Xugong, Sany, and others, with more than 468 new commercial vehicle models in 2025, an increase of 96% year-on-year, achieving full coverage of vehicle models in various fields. The company's energy storage business is rapidly expanding. In 2025, the company's energy storage system products and other businesses achieved revenue of 141.0 billion yuan, an increase of +72%; the bank estimates that the shipment volume exceeded 50GWh, an increase of +100%. The company continues to deepen cooperation with State Power Investment, CNNC Huineng, Three Gorges New Energy, and others, achieving rapid growth in shipment volume. At the same time, the company is exploring various cooperation and development models to support the development of its power station business. In terms of the international market, the company has successfully entered the supplier whitelist of leading energy storage developers and independent power producers in regions such as South Africa, Latin America, the United States, and Israel, and has established cooperation with customers in more than 10 countries and regions. The company's products and technologies are continuously innovating, continuously improving customer service capabilities. In terms of power batteries, for pure electric and hybrid vehicle models, the company's 5C lithium iron phosphate batteries installation volume has greatly increased, with 10C fast-charging batteries completing design and development in 2025 and coordinating with OEMs for vehicle-level development. For the HEV/PHEV market, the company has developed 20C high-power batteries that have been matched with Geely, Dongfeng, and others for bulk delivery. For the commercial vehicle market, the company has introduced the Zhiyuan series solution, supporting 2C fast-charging for heavy trucks and a super long life of 200 million kilometers over 10 years, and supporting a breakthrough in range of over 350km for light commercial vehicles. In terms of energy storage batteries, the company has introduced 588Ah and 684Ah large battery cells to better serve end customers. Risk Warning: Electric vehicle sales may be lower than expected; significant fluctuations in raw material prices; intensified industry competition risks.