China Galaxy Securities: It is expected that the price of Brent crude oil will fluctuate around $100 per barrel in April. It is recommended to focus on oil and gas, coal chemical industry, light hydrocarbon chemical industry and other related assets.

China Galaxy Securities released a research report stating that the current focus of the crude oil market is still on the evolution of the Middle East geopolitical situation. It is expected that the Brent crude oil price will fluctuate around $100 per barrel in April 2026 with increased short-term oil price fluctuations due to geopolitical uncertainties. It is recommended to closely monitor the progress of US-Iran negotiations, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, operations of oil production facilities in the Gulf region, etc. The suggestion is to pay attention to stocks related to oil and gas, coal chemical industry, light alkanes chemical industry, such as PetroChina (601857.SH), Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group (600989.SH), Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ), etc. Key points from China Galaxy Securities: The center of gravity of oil prices in March has risen significantly The average prices of Brent and WTI in March were $99.6 and $91.0 per barrel, with increases of 43.6% and 41.1%, respectively, month-on-month. On the supply side, according to the IEA March monthly report, due to near disruption in shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and oil storage facilities approaching saturation, Gulf countries have had to cut oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day. On the other hand, the IEA's 32 member countries recently unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic petroleum reserves and have started to put them on the market. On the demand side, more than 60% of Asia's naphtha imports come from the Middle East, and some overseas refineries have announced reduced output due to force majeure, such as KPIC, YNCC, LG Chem, while some Chinese refineries have also reduced production rates; on the other hand, US refinery operating rates are gradually increasing, with a rate of 92.9% as of March 20, a 1.5 percentage point increase from the previous month. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate around $100 per barrel in the short term due to the ongoing focus on the evolution of the Middle East geopolitical situation. It is recommended to closely monitor the progress of US-Iran negotiations, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the operation of oil production facilities in the Gulf region. In January-February, China's apparent demand for crude oil was strong, with a year-on-year increase of 12.6% In January-February, China processed 123 million tons of crude oil, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year; crude oil production was 36 million tons, an increase of 1.9% year-on-year; crude oil imports were 97 million tons, an increase of 15.8% year-on-year; apparent consumption of crude oil was 132 million tons, an increase of 12.6% year-on-year; external dependency ratio was 73.2%, remaining high. In January-February, China's apparent demand for natural gas slightly increased by 0.8% year-on-year In January-February, China's natural gas production was 44.6 billion cubic meters, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year; imports were 27.6 billion cubic meters, a decrease of 1.1% year-on-year; apparent consumption was 70.7 billion cubic meters, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year; external dependency ratio was 39.1%, slightly down compared to the previous year. In January-February, China's apparent demand for refined oil products showed a stable performance, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4% In January-February, China's production of refined oil products was 68 million tons, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year; exports were 8 million tons, an increase of 12.7% year-on-year; apparent consumption was 69 million tons, an increase of 5.4% year-on-year, with gasoline, kerosene, and diesel consumption increasing by 0.8%, 2.1%, and 4.0% respectively. The increase in gasoline and kerosene consumption in January-February may be related to a significant increase in private car trips and air passenger traffic during the winter holiday and Chinese New Year period, while diesel demand may be related to stable logistics transportation, and increasing demand for agricultural fuel. Risk warning: Risks of escalating international trade frictions, risks of disruptions in major raw material supplies, risks of weaker-than-expected downstream demand, risks of project production falling short of expectations, etc.