JP Morgan sounds the alarm: oil prices in Q2 may stabilize above $100. If supply disruptions continue until mid-May, it could surpass $150.

JPMorgan Chase said in a report on Thursday that oil prices could soar to $120 to $130 per barrel in the short term; if the supply flow through the Strait of Hormuz remains interrupted until mid-May, there is a risk of oil prices breaking through $150. JPMorgan's base scenario assumes that after a period of supply tightness and inventory depletion, the interruption in the Strait of Hormuz will eventually be resolved through negotiations. In this scenario, it is expected that oil prices will remain above $100 per barrel in the second quarter. The report also added that as the strait partially reopens and oil inventories begin to recover to some extent, oil prices are expected to fall in the second half of 2026. JPMorgan warned that the magnitude and duration of any price spike will be a key factor in determining the severity of the wider macroeconomic impact. If high oil prices persist, there will be increased risks of subdued demand and potential economic downturn. Earlier this week, energy market consultancy FGE NexantECA also stated that if the situation in the Strait of Hormuz near closure due to a Middle East war continues for six to eight weeks, oil prices could skyrocket to $150 or $200 per barrel. Fereidun Fesharaki, honorary chairman of the company, said in an interview on Tuesday, "One million barrels of oil cannot flow per week, four million barrels of oil cannot flow per month. Therefore, in a period of time, these losses will have astronomical effects on the market." Goldman Sachs pointed out that oil prices could continue to rise in the short term as long as oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remain restricted. Goldman added that if the risk of interruption persists, Brent crude prices may surpass the peak levels of 2008 - Brent crude reached $147.5 per barrel in 2008, setting a historical high. The attitude of Bank of America is more pessimistic. The bank's analysts expect that due to the impact of the Middle East war, even if the conflict ends in a few weeks, the year will still face economic slowdown, rising inflation, and $100 per barrel oil prices. The bank's economists predict that the US economic growth will be impacted by 50 basis points in 2026, down to 2.3%. Current forecasts show that headline inflation in 2026 will reach 3.6%, higher than the previous prediction of 2.8%. Globally, economists have also revised down their GDP forecast to 3.1% and increased their inflation expectations to 3.3%. Bank of America economists wrote, "This is consistent with the features of stagflation shock. Based on our new base assumption that oil prices will remain around $100 per barrel for the remainder of 2026, the impact on inflation from this shock will be earlier and more significant than the impact on GDP growth." Recent statements by President Trump about the "very severe strike" against Iran in the next two to three weeks have dampened hopes in the market for a quick resolution to the Middle East conflict and spurred a jump in oil prices on Thursday. Meanwhile, although Trump mentioned in his speech that the Strait of Hormuz will open naturally after the war ends, he did not provide specific details on how this will be achieved. The timetable for the reopening of the strait is currently the focus of investors. However, there have been reports of the possibility of partial passage through the Strait of Hormuz. According to reports, Iran and Oman are drafting an agreement to implement "transit regulation" for ship traffic through the strait of Hormuz, but at the same time emphasizing that there will be no restrictions on ship passage. The progress on the Oman side is seen as bringing new hope, that the Strait of Hormuz may partially reopen without the need for military action.