Middle Finger Research Institute: Real estate industry continued to improve marginally in March, Beijing and Shanghai welcome "early spring" market.

The China Real Estate Research Institute issued a document stating that from the market performance perspective, the real estate industry in March continued to show marginal improvement, with Beijing and Shanghai welcoming a "mini spring" market. In the new housing market, with the release of demand after the Spring Festival, the concentration of high-quality projects in core cities entering the market, and increased marketing efforts, the year-on-year decline in new housing transactions narrowed to 13% in March; the month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in 100 cities continued to narrow, with increases in Shanghai and Hefei; in the land market, the transaction area and transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities in March decreased by 15% and 35% year-on-year respectively, with the decline narrowing. Market Supply and Demand: In March, the year-on-year decline in new housing sales area in key cities narrowed, and the transaction volume of second-hand housing in 20 cities fell slightly by 2.5% on a high base, ushering in a "mini spring" market in Beijing and Shanghai. New Housing Market: With the release of demand after the Spring Festival, the concentration of high-quality projects in core cities entering the market, and increased marketing efforts, there has been a marginal improvement in market transactions, with the year-on-year decline in new housing transactions narrowing to 13% in March. Chart: Trend of monthly sales area of residential properties in key 100 cities Note: March figures are estimates Key City New Housing Sales: According to preliminary statistics from the China Index, in March, the sales area of new residential properties in key 100 cities increased by 128% month-on-month but decreased by 13% year-on-year. In the first quarter, the cumulative sales area of new residential properties in 100 cities was approximately 45.67 million square meters, a decrease of 22% year-on-year. Looking at different tier cities, in the first quarter, the sales area of new homes in first-tier cities decreased by 18% year-on-year; second-tier cities by 22%, with some cities like Wuhan and Xi'an showing year-on-year growth; and third-fourth tier cities by 24% year-on-year. Table: New residential property transaction situation in key cities in March 2026 (unit: 10,000 square meters) Chart: Trend of approved listing area and year-on-year trend of key 50 cities residential properties Key City New Housing Listings: The trend of new housing supply continues to decline, with the market overall in a phase of "destocking". According to China Index data, in March, the area of new residential properties approved for listing in key 50 cities decreased by 22% year-on-year. In the first quarter, the cumulative approved listing area of new residential properties in key 50 cities decreased by 25% year-on-year. Looking at different tier cities, in the first quarter, the approved listing area of first-tier cities decreased by 19% year-on-year, while Shanghai saw a 26% increase. Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen all saw a year-on-year decline; second-tier cities saw a 25% decrease with some exceptions like Qingdao and Wenzhou showing growth; and third-fourth tier cities saw a 31% decrease year-on-year. The reduction in supply helps alleviate inventory pressure, improve market supply and demand relations, but also to some extent restricts the recovery of the sales side in the short term. Second-hand Housing Market: In March, second-hand housing transactions in Beijing and Shanghai saw a year-on-year increase, with small units and low total price listings in focus. Chart: Monthly transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in 20 cities and year-on-year comparison Key City Second-hand Housing Transactions: According to China Index data, in March, 20 cities transacted 148,000 units of second-hand residential properties, a 2.5% decrease year-on-year. In the first quarter of this year, 20 cities transacted 333,000 units of second-hand residential properties, a 4.1% decrease year-on-year. In the fourth week of March (3.23-3.29), the transaction volume of second-hand residential properties in 20 cities reached a new weekly high since 2025, with market activity picking up under the "mini spring" market trend. In March, some core cities showed signs of a "mini spring" market, with stable owner listing expectations and growth in transaction volume in Shanghai and Beijing due to the demand from first-time buyers. In March, Shanghai saw a record 31,000 units of second-hand residential properties transacted, a 6% year-on-year increase; while Beijing had nearly 20,000 units transacted, a 3% year-on-year increase. Table: Second-hand housing transactions in key cities in January-March 2026 (unit: units) Note: Shanghai, Wuxi, Nanning, and Wenzhou are second-hand residential properties, while other cities are second-hand residential properties. Key City Second-hand Housing Listings: After the Chinese New Year, the number of new listings has increased slightly but remains significantly lower than in previous years, indicating a stabilizing trend in seller expectations. By the end of February, there were approximately 2.05 million units of second-hand residential properties listed in key 25 cities, a 4% decrease month-on-month and an 8% decrease from the peak in October last year. In March, key cities saw about 150,000 new listings of second-hand housing, a year-on-year decrease of about 40%. Housing Price Performance: In March, the month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in 100 cities continued to narrow, with increases in Shanghai and Hefei. Chart: Changes in new and second-hand housing prices month-on-month in 100 cities According to the China Real Estate Index System's 100-city price index, in March 2026, with the "mini spring" market trend in core cities and stabilizing owner expectations, the average price of second-hand housing in 100 cities was 12,792 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month decrease of 0.34%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the third consecutive month of narrowing; a year-on-year decrease of 8.55%. In March, the price of second-hand homes in Shanghai increased by 0.08% month-on-month, marking the first increase since June 2023; Hefei increased by 0.03%, the first increase since May 2023; Beijing decreased by 0.31% month-on-month, with a narrowing decline of 0.35 percentage points compared to the previous month. Looking at different tier cities, the month-on-month decline in second-hand housing prices in cities of various tiers has narrowed in March, with first-tier, second-tier, and third-fourth tier cities seeing declines of 0.16%, 0.42%, and 0.34% respectively. The month-on-month decline narrowed by 0.26, 0.15, and 0.20 percentage points compared to the previous month, with year-on-year declines of 7.72%, 9.17%, and 8.27% respectively. In terms of the number of cities with price increases or decreases, in March, 7 cities saw price increases, 91 cities saw price decreases, and 2 cities remained stable. As for new housing, in March, the average price of new residential properties in 100 cities was 17,115 yuan per square meter, a month-on-month increase of 0.05% and a year-on-year increase of 2.24%. In March, real estate developers increased their offerings, with high-end improvement projects entering the market in cities such as Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, leading to a structural rise in the average price of new homes in 100 cities. Looking at different tier cities, in March, the month-on-month increase in the price of new residential properties in first-tier cities was 0.24%, with a year-on-year increase of 6.19%, led by increases in Hangzhou and Shanghai by 0.34% and 0.33% respectively. The increase in the price of new homes was mainly driven by the structural effect of high-priced projects entering the market. Second-tier cities saw a month-on-month increase of 0.02% and a year-on-year increase of 1.69%. Third-fourth tier representative cities saw a month-on-month decline of 0.20% and a year-on-year decline of 2.45%. In terms of the number of cities with price increases or decreases, in March, 23 cities saw price increases, 72 cities saw price decreases, and 5 cities remained stable. Land Market: In March, the transaction area and transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities decreased by 15% and 35% year-on-year respectively, with the decline narrowing. Chart: Trends of average premium rates for residential land in 300 cities on a monthly and quarterly basis Chart: Trends in monthly land transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities Note: Residential land includes pure residential land and comprehensive land with residential properties. In March, the pace of land auctions in key cities accelerated, but the transaction area and transfer fees for residential land in 300 cities still decreased year-on-year. According to China Index data, in March, the transaction area for residential land in 300 cities was 22.24 million square meters, a 15.3% year-on-year decrease; and the land transfer fees amounted to 96.3 billion yuan, a 35.4% year-on-year decrease. Looking at the cumulative figures for the first quarter of 2026, the transaction area for residential land in 300 cities decreased by 24.1% year-on-year to 62.24 million square meters, while the land transfer fees decreased by 42.6% year-on-year to 235 billion yuan. In terms of premium rates, since the beginning of the year, with the slowdown in supply, the overall premium rate for residential land in 300 cities remains low. According to China Index data, the average premium rate for residential land in 300 cities in the first quarter of 2026 was 4.9%. In January, the land market was relatively quiet, but in February, spurred by high premium land parcels like the Ma Chang site in Guangzhou, the premium rate rose to 10.7%; in March, the average premium rate fell to 3.5%. Chart: Proportion of land transfer fees for residential land in different cities across the country since 2020 (all cities) Table: Transaction details of residential land in key cities in the first quarter of 2026 In terms of city concentration, according to China Index data, in the first quarter of 2026, the top 20 cities in China accounted for 59% of the total residential land transfer fees nationwide, an increase of 7 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2025. Most of the top 20 cities in terms of residential land transfer fees are core first- and second-tier cities. Since the beginning of the year, there have been fewer land auctions in key cities, with Guangzhou leading in the first quarter in terms of land transfer fees due to the Ma Chang site in the Tianhe District (with a total price of 23.6 billion yuan); the land market in Shanghai and Beijing has remained relatively stable, with land transfer fees around one hundred billion yuan, and the land transfer fees for residential land in Nantong reached 11.4 billion yuan, mainly acquired by local state-owned enterprises.