HAITONG INT'L: March saw the decline of the Spring Festival consumption bonus, with the restoration of the catering chain slowing down.

HAITONG INT'L released a research report predicting that in March 2026, out of the 8 essential consumer industries, 4 will see growth while 4 will see a decline. Frozen food, condiments, dining, and soft drinks are experiencing growth, while mid-to-high-end liquor, mass-market liquor, dairy products, and beer are experiencing negative growth. Beer has shifted from growth to decline compared to the previous month, while the other declining industries have stabilized or narrowed. The report attributes this to the fading of the Chinese New Year consumption boost, weakening of dining industry recovery efforts, soft demand for beer at the retail level, uneven recovery in the liquor industry, a stabilization in demand for dairy products, and steady growth in soft drinks. Key points from HAITONG INT'L are as follows: Mid-to-high-end liquor: In March, the mid-to-high-end liquor industry's revenue was 29.5 billion yuan, a 14.5% year-on-year decrease; cumulative revenue for January to March was 120.5 billion yuan, a 14.3% year-on-year decrease. The pricing system for high-end liquor has stabilized, essential consumption resilience is evident, and real household and personal consumption needs continue to be met. Mid-to-high-end liquor is under pressure in terms of quantity and price, mainly due to the slower-than-expected recovery in commercial consumption scenarios, coupled with a clear trend of customer stratification at both ends and a slow pace of inventory reduction in channels. Mass-market liquor: In March, the mass-market liquor industry's revenue was 20.2 billion yuan, a 1.0% year-on-year decrease; cumulative revenue for January to March was 60.5 billion yuan, a 1.5% year-on-year decrease. Demand for mass-market liquor in March remained relatively robust, supported by daily self-consumption, family gatherings, and county-level banquet scenarios. Channel sales were stable, and overall prices were steady, showing strong resilience under essential consumption. Beer: In March, the beer industry's revenue was 14 billion yuan, a 1.4% year-on-year decrease; cumulative revenue for January to March was 46.2 billion yuan, a 1.5% year-on-year decrease. Overall terminal demand was weak in March, with slow sales in dining and supermarkets, and significantly increased discounting at the retail level. As temperatures gradually rise, the industry is entering its peak season stocking cycle, with downstream stocking intentions steadily increasing and channel inventory replenishment accelerating, laying a foundation for second-quarter peak season demand release.