Hong Kong stock concept tracking|Geopolitical conflicts continue Methanol supply and demand tight situation (with concept stocks)

In the first quarter, the price of methanol fluctuated before experiencing an explosive increase, with the core driving force being the Middle East geopolitical conflict in March. Domestic production increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with imports initially high and then low. It is estimated that imports will decrease to around 500,000 tons in March due to the conflict. Coastal inventories have quickly reduced, while mainland inventories have experienced a high and then low trend. In the second quarter, if the blockade of the Hormuz Strait continues, imports will remain low, maintaining a tight supply and demand situation. If the situation eases, geopolitical premiums will decrease, and prices will face the risk of a high-level pullback. As of the week ending March 18th, the operating rate of domestic methanol plants has risen to 92.8%, reaching a historical peak. The current domestic methanol market shows a structural characteristic of "sudden decrease in imports, full domestic production." Port inventories continue to decrease, confirming the substantial impact of reduced imports. And the domestic operating rate has reached a historical peak, meaning there is little room for increased supply. If the import gap continues to widen, it will be difficult for the domestic market to effectively compensate through increased production, and the supply-demand gap may further expand. With the dual constraints of high import dependence and near-limit domestic production capacity utilization, the market is transitioning from "expectation-driven" to "reality-driven," and the realization of the supply gap will become the core support for prices. Fitch Ratings reports that with the tightening of supply due to the Iran war, methanol producers' profit margins will expand. Methanol industry chain companies listed in Hong Kong: CHINA RISUN GP (01907): Currently operating a methanol annual production capacity of 600,000 tons, all using coke oven gas as raw material for production. Its methanol production is mainly based on the by-product coke oven gas from its own coking business, making its raw material source relatively stable and self-sufficient, effectively avoiding risks brought by external supply chain fluctuations such as natural gas and coal prices. The company operates at full capacity throughout the year, and its methanol production capacity accounts for a certain share of the total methanol production capacity in China's coke oven gas methanol production. CIMC ENRIC (03899): The biomass-based green methanol project in Zhanjiang, Guangdong has started production in December 2025 with an initial annual production capacity of 50,000 tons. The company's green methanol products have been internationally certified and successfully completed the first "ship-to-ship" green methanol refueling operation in Hong Kong. It is progressing with the Zhanjiang Phase II project. It has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Datang Hainan to jointly build a green methanol project with an annual production capacity of 100-200,000 tons in Danzhou, Hainan. HK & CHINA GAS (00003): HK & CHINA GAS is expanding its green methanol business through its collaboration with Foran Energy Group: in 2025, they jointly established the joint venture company VENEX, with each holding a 50% stake, focusing on the production and operation of green methanol. HK & CHINA GAS injected its green methanol factory (Inner Mongolia Yigao Coalization Technology Co., Ltd.) in Inner Mongolia ERDOS Resources into VENEX. The factory has an annual production capacity of 50,000 tons of green methanol and plans to increase it to 300,000 tons per year through renovation. VENEX plans to invest in green methanol production bases in Inner Mongolia, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Hainan, and other regions, aiming to achieve a total annual production capacity of 1 million tons. Goldwind Science & Technology (02208): Its 725,000 tons per year green hydrogen to green methanol project in Xing'an League was approved in February 2026 and is scheduled to start construction in May 2026.