The dawn of the end of the war is beginning to emerge, with violent surges in the Japanese and South Korean stock markets: the Nikkei rose 4%, while the Korean stock market surged 6%.
Asian stock markets opened with a strong upward trend, as market optimism suggests that the war that has affected global markets and disrupted energy supplies may be nearing its end.
Asian stock markets opened strong, continuing the rebound from Wall Street as market optimism grows that the war that has impacted global markets and disrupted energy supplies may be nearing its end. The stock markets in Japan, South Korea, and Australia all rose collectively, with the Nikkei 225 Index increasing by 4% and the KOSPI Index in Korea rising by 6% to 5356.45 points. The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index climbed by 2.4%, with a ratio of 9:1 of rising to falling stocks among its components, reflecting positive market expectations that the end of the war will ease the tight oil supply situation and support economic growth. Asian tech stocks, which had been falling for four consecutive days, also bounced back by 2.9%.
Behind the weak US dollar, rising US Treasury bonds, and stabilized oil prices, is President Trump's announcement that the US expects to end the war with Iran in two to three weeks and hand over the issue of the Strait of Hormuz to other countries. After a 3.2% drop in Brent crude oil prices on Tuesday, prices are currently below $105 per barrel.
This five-week conflict has caused drastic fluctuations in energy and stock markets, with some stock indices entering correction territory. If the conflict is resolved, investor confidence is expected to recover, and the focus of the market will shift to how policymakers will address the impact of rising energy costs and supply disruptions on the economy, as well as whether the first-quarter financial reports to be released later this month will reflect pressure on economic growth.
Michael Bailey of FBB Capital Partners pointed out, "The market has suffered heavy losses for over a month, and expectations may have hit rock bottom, making any signs of hope especially valuable." President Trump plans to address the nation at 9 pm EST on Wednesday regarding the Iran situation and provide "important updates". He stated that Iran may still reach an agreement with the US, but emphasized that an agreement with Tehran is not a prerequisite for ending the war. Iran reiterated that its five demands must be met before ending the war with the US.
It is worth mentioning that the specific timeframe of Trump's two to three weeks is unclear. He often uses a two-week deadline for major decisions, but frequently exceeds that timeframe. Recently, the US has increased the deployment of troops to the region, and if Trump changes his mind, the situation could still escalate. According to US officials, after the flagship aircraft carrier left the region for maintenance, a third carrier strike group is heading to the Middle East to continue military operations against Iran.
Trump has called for other countries to take control of the Strait of Hormuz, expressing frustration over the month-long unresolved war, which is the latest signal of his seeking to end the conflict amid soaring oil prices. Fawad Razaqzada of Forex.com believes, "Although Trump may consider ending hostilities, the main concern for the market is the unresolved status of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran is unlikely to back down without gaining concessions."
The response of the Japanese and South Korean stock markets to the improvement in the war situation has been particularly strong due to the high dependence of their economies on Middle Eastern energy and the extreme market sell-off pressure they experienced earlier.
During the escalation of the conflict in early March, the Kospi index in South Korea dropped by up to 11% in a single day due to panic selling, triggering several circuit breakers, and the Japanese stock market was also caught in concerns of severe inflation due to soaring energy costs. With South Korea's long-standing dependence on importing oil from the Middle East at over 70%, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz was seen as a devastating threat to its economic growth.
Therefore, as the possibility of the strait reopening increased, the "doomsday fears" of supply chain disruptions were alleviated, driving the leading sectors such as automotive and electronics that rely heavily on global logistics in the stock market.
Brendan Fagan, a strategist at Bloomberg, analyzed, "The rebound of the US stock market on Tuesday provides a potential reset point for the market which has become one of the most sensitive indicators of global AI trading pullbacks. For Asia, the current situation is favorable for the opening, especially for tech stocks that have been hit hard. However, whether a sustained uptrend will be formed depends on whether the market chooses to stabilize."
In other markets, the US dollar weakened in early Asian trading. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose by 2.4% last month, with the US dollar becoming a major safe-haven asset during the war. US Treasury bonds continued to rise, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury falling by 2 basis points to 4.29%. Gold rose for the fourth consecutive day, breaking through $4700 per ounce, despite a nearly 12% drop in March, the worst monthly performance since October 2008.
In terms of economic data, US consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in March, due to slightly improved optimism about the business and labor market conditions. The decrease in job vacancies and slowing hiring in February indicated a cooling labor demand before the war. Bret Kenwell of eToro said, "After a significant decline in the fourth quarter, early signs of stabilization are appearing in consumer confidence and job vacancies. Although not a substantial rebound, it may indicate a slowdown in the deterioration of the consumer and labor market environment."
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