Guolian Minsheng Securities: Global multi-market household savings are expected to enter a period of economic upturn in 2026.

Guolian Minsheng Securities released a research report stating that the global multi-market household storage is expected to usher in a period of economic upturn in 2026. Subsidies in various countries, combined with escalating geopolitical conflicts, may drive up natural gas and electricity prices, shorten the investment recovery period for household storage, and potentially boost demand in Europe. The cancellation of subsidies in 2025 triggered a rush for household storage installations in the United States, and from 2026 to 2031, the installation of household storage units in the United States is expected to remain at a high level. In addition, power shortages in emerging markets and the decreasing cost of solar storage are expected to promote high demand. The main points of Guolian Minsheng Securities are as follows: Europe: Improved revenue models + subsidy incentives + escalating geopolitical conflicts are expected to drive high demand High penetration of solar power generation in Europe affects grid absorption and stimulates the demand for storage; from 2022 to 2024, the average penetration rate of household storage in Europe was 20% in solar households, still at a relatively low level with great potential for improvement. The revenue model for household storage in Europe is improving, with net metering tapering off, the dissemination of dynamic electricity pricing, and the perfection of VPP mechanisms, enhancing the economic viability of household storage; countries are continuously introducing subsidies to stimulate demand for household storage; in addition, escalating geopolitical conflicts or pushing up natural gas and electricity prices would shorten the investment recovery period for household storage and potentially drive high demand in Europe. Australia: High penetration rate of household solar power + low storage rate, subsidy incentives drive high demand for household storage By the end of 2025, the penetration rate of rooftop solar power in Australia reached 39%, while the penetration rate of household storage was only 10.6%, leaving room for significant improvement. In July 2025, the Australian government introduced subsidies to stimulate high demand for household storage, with 183,000 additional household storage installations in the second half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 305%; in December 2025, the Australian government added to the subsidy budget, and demand is expected to continue to increase in 2026. United States: Power shortages leading to rising electricity prices + VPP enhancing economic viability, high demand expected for household storage The cancelation of subsidies in 2025 sparked a rush for household storage installations in the United States; looking ahead to 2026, considering that household systems under third-party ownership (TPO) belong to commercial projects that can continue to enjoy tax incentives, or may serve as alternative solutions to user-owned solar storage systems, combined with power shortages in the United States leading to rising electricity prices and improving the economic viability of household storage through participation in VPPs to provide ancillary services, the installation of household storage units in the United States is expected to remain at a high level from 2026 to 2031. Emerging markets: Power shortages + declining costs of solar storage systems drive high demand Weak electricity systems in emerging markets such as India, Pakistan, Southeast Asia, and Africa create a dire need for power and the decreasing costs of solar storage systems stimulate high demand. Frequent geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East region, such as Iraq, Israel, and Lebanon, stimulate demand for household storage due to power shortages. Risk warning: Policies not meeting expectations, intensified competition leading to unexpectedly sharp price declines, fluctuations in raw material prices exceeding expectations, etc.